Experts Expound: Who’s next in and out of the governor’s race?

The 2026 California gubernatorial race is as unsettled as ever. Who is the most likely to jump in next? Conversely, who is the most likely to drop out?

“She’s not going to do it this time around, but Assemblymember Buffy Wicks would make one hell of a Governor.”

“Obviously Padilla is The Unnamed Bigfoot. I’d say Thurmond is first out.”

“Alex Padilla is the one to watch. If he gets in, it changes the game entirely. There’s room for someone with his profile and credibility, and the buzz around him isn’t just chatter: it’s real. Padilla remains well known and liked among his California colleagues. Rick Caruso would be wise to jump in, however, before Padilla – especially with the moderate lane as open as it is right now. As to exits, I don’t see a path for Betty Yee. She’s been in the race longer than most, but there’s been no momentum, no visible coalition forming around her, and no fundraising heat. At a certain point, longevity in the race isn’t the same as viability.”

“Rob Bonta in. Betty Yee out.”

“The only new entrants that would probably matter at this point would be Padilla and Caruso. With respect to dropouts, hard to see how Thurmond hangs in, polling at 1%.”

“Now that Padilla is all but in, that should put an end to new entrants. Caruso would rather be mayor, so he will end up there. Sadly the most qualified candidates — Toni Atkins and Betty Yee — will drop soon due to the problem that continues to plague women candidates: lack of money.”

“Some NPP with the name AXAN is running for Governor according to the Secretary of State. I hope that person stays in. Great name. The potential candidate with the most media attention lately is Paul Mitchell. He would have more name ID than Atkins, Thurmond, Yee and that Cloobeck knucklehead.”

“Well the perfect scenario is a three way agreement … Padilla gets in and wins Gov. He then appoints Katie or Toni to the Senate and they all support Gavin for President. Others see Alex as Gov and appointing Gavin to fill out the Senate term while he runs for President. Our problem is that our Dem bench in CA is too deep.”

“Rumors abound that Alex Padilla or Rick Caruso may run for governor but with the exception of Katie Porter, what is really missing from the field is the next generation of leadership for the state.  With apologies to Katie, someone relatively young but rooted in and knowledgeable about state issues and state processes specifically, such as current Assembly Appropriations Chair Buffy Wicks, would fit the bill.  Hopefully someone like that will jump in or Josh Fryday will jump over from the Lieutenant Governor’s race.”

“Rumors are swirling that Tom Brady, the NFL’s GOAT, is preparing to announce a gubernatorial run with Rob Gronkowski as his pick for Lieutenant Governor. If true, the so-called “Dream Team” could clear the field, with all other contenders bowing out against what looks like a winning ticket for 2026.”

“Rumors are swirling that Tom Brady, the NFL’s GOAT, is preparing to announce a gubernatorial run with Rob Gronkowski as his pick for Lieutenant Governor. If true, the so-called “Dream Team” could clear the field, with all other contenders bowing out against what looks like a winning ticket for 2026.”

Editor’s Note: If Brady runs we predict Charles Woodson will announce his own campaign and then knock Brady on his backside during a debate, forcing TB12 to fumble his candidacy. Woodson will then claim the nomination, but Rob Bonta rules that Brady had “tucked” the nomination before Woodson hit him and declares Brady the winner by default. 

“The most likely candidate to jump in is the same candidate most likely to drop out (or lose). Rick Caruso will discover again that money is no match for message.”

“Looks like Alex Padilla is stretching out his peacock feathers and thinking life in the US Senate as the out-party isn’t a great place to be if you like to get things done, which he does. And then, running for President as a Governor puts you into national prime time more easily. For him to get in and win, Becerra and Villaraigosa need to get out. (Becerra could be appointed his replacement as part of the unofficial deal. Otherwise, Katie Porter just grows stronger. And Carusso—another Angeleno. He has a better chance being elected an opera singer. Too many Reps in the race already now (two) to get into the Top Two. But don’t try to convince them they can’t win.  Everyone always has a secret pathway until they lose big.”

“Who drops out next? Honestly, no one will notice. The 2026 field is already bloated with candidates struggling for oxygen, and most withdrawals won’t even make a ripple. But here’s a crazy idea Californians could actually get behind: everyone loves sequels. Twenty years after his reelection, Arnold Schwarzenegger storms back as an independent, saves redistricting, and turns the 2026 campaign into a populist juggernaut. In a race full of career politicians, an Arnold sequel would dominate the headlines, cut across party lines, and electrify voters who feel ignored.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale