Experts Expound: The future of Prop 47

Everyone is talking about Proposition 47 this year. So with that in mind, it’s time for our panel of experts to weigh in.

The question: Californians are fed up with crime, and – correctly or not – Proposition 47 is getting much of the blame. Will either lawmakers or voters eventually make substantive changes to this law? 

“This reform measure passes easily in November. The front page of every newspaper and the opening of every newscast are like paid campaign materials.”

“I would be very unsurprised if lawmakers revisited Prop 47 … but if they don’t we will have new lawmakers.

Longer rant …It is very important to address the root causes of crime, reckon with the multi-generational impacts of systemic racism and mass incarceration and invest heavily in youth from disadvantaged communities. At the same time, as someone living in Oakland, it makes me incredibly frustrated that people continue to make excuses for violent criminals. These aren’t Jean Valjean-type folks who are stealing a loaf of bread to feed their starving families. These are organized gangs that are terrorizing the most vulnerable members of our communities and feeling entirely justified and supported in doing so. Just last week, a group of adults entered the campus of my son’s high school and started mugging students. Last summer, there was a months-long campaign of terror by a group of teenagers who assaulted and stole from dozens of elderly women. I personally witnessed the tail end of two of these assaults in one case having to band together with my neighbors to chase off the attackers who were threatening to run us over with their car. These violent criminals were *immediately* released by our county district attorney Pamela Price who, to the point above, is now subject to a recall election.

That said, Oakland specifically and many places like it are in an incredible bind and it’s not clear whether there is anything we can do about it. We need more public safety personnel at all levels. This isn’t just beat cops and detectives – though that’s a big part of it. It’s also ceasefire specialists, people expert in treating people with people with high acuity mental health issues, etc. But we’ve gotten ourselves so upside down on the cost of policing – with things like pension obligations, obligations to the bonds that we passed to deal with our pension obligations, totally out of control policy overtime that flows from the understaffing of our departments – that we literally can’t afford to do this. We basically need to declare bankruptcy to restructure our pension obligations and there is less than no chance that we will do this because of the power of public safety unions specifically and public sector unions generally. Not that folks don’t deserve their pensions or better compensation generally but if the end result is that – in an incredibly high tax city so that’s not the problem – we cannot provide basic public services such as public safety … it’s, well, really sad.”

“Both Senate and Assembly leadership (and the Gov) seem inclined to leave Prop. 47 in place, so I don’t think we’ll see much action there. But if this does go to voters in November I suspect it’s toast.”

“Rightly or wrongly, all that matters are that that voters do not currently feel safe. There isn’t a bar or pie chart big enough to change that. If legislators don’t see or feel that, they will be in for an awakening in November.”

“I believe either course is likely in the near future. So-called experts can argue that Prop. 47 bears no responsibility for the huge uptick in retail theft, but it is a disconnect in the minds of voters that the threshold for determining whether theft is a felony or misdemeanor was raised substantially, and then there has been a rash of smash-and-grab robberies that have stripped retail stores bare, and to say there is no connection. Politicians have to — or should — factor in public opinion, not just testimony from college professors, or think-tank noodlers, suggesting 47 has had zero impact on retail theft.”

“The Legislature will tinker around the edges on retail crime.  So far, it doesn’t feel strong enough to really make a difference in the areas there are serious problems.   Assuming it qualifies, it’s unclear whether the initiative that just filed signatures will force enough action to pull it off the ballot.”

“Most voters know mass incarceration and ‘Defund the Police’ are equally stupid. Proposition 47 is a step toward common sense policies that make us safer. If an increase in property crimes is driven by organized cartels, the law should go after them, not back to the failure of lengthy prison terms for their street-level minions.”

“It will need to be a ballot measure.”

“I think they will because Democrats shouldn’t want this issue on the ballot in November. Much like how Prop 1 in 2022 (abortion) helped define that election cycle, this ballot measure could help define the coming election – and not in a good way for Democrats.  All their candidates would be getting peppered with questions about crime (more than they may already be) and every newscast will be forced to focus on it because it is a big ballot measure.  Democrats would be better off doing something legislatively and then having a November election that is about fighting Trump, Abortion, protecting democracy, and other winning issues for them.”

“The proponents have the upper hand — and they know it. This will be difficult to derail. Legislatively, the Rivas rollout of a bill package was a flop. Dems just don’t have credibility on this issue.”

“The Legislature is not going to propose significant changes. For some reason the Democrats feel it hurts their base. Here’s some news: The base is very concerned and pissed about retail crime, which they believe is increasing. This will make the ballot through initiative action in November and will handily pass, with many Democrats supporting. Sometimes we just have to admit to a mistake, and fix it!”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale