Experts Expound: The billionaire tax

Will the SEIU UHW-backed billionaire tax make the November ballot? If so, will it pass? 

“It will make the ballot because the sponsors aren’t willing to take what might be offered to them as a compromise. In the end, it will be close, but it will pass.”

“Yes it will qualify but it will not pass…it might just be another leverage play for a legislative deal.”

“It may make the ballot but probably will not pass. There will likely be competing ballot measures, and when there are multiple ballot measures dealing with similar subject matter voters tend to vote no on all of them.”

“I’m not a political fortune teller—but give me a second while I wander over and consult my new Incline Village neighbor. Headline: Google co-founder Sergey Brin linked to purchase of Lake Tahoe’s most expensive home — just out of the billionaire tax’s reach.”

“Yes, it will qualify. SEIU [UHW] is prolific at gathering signatures. But I think it will fail at the ballot box by a slim margin. The argument about job loss resonates. And you already have some prominent Democrats arguing that this should be a federal issue, not state by state, so it eliminates the inter-state billionaire migration to lower-tax states. (That may be more bluster than fact.) I don’t think this issue is a winner for Democrats at the state level. But it could be at the national level. And that’s true whether it wins or loses here in California.”

“Not my area of expertise. But if it makes the ballot, it passes. Who votes on tax policy? It will all be about ‘mo money!”

“Even if we dodge this latest vehicle for the populist rage, the reckoning it represents is inescapable. The failure of both parties to confront the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of so few has already undermined public confidence in virtually every sector. Young voters are showing signs of swinging wildly back and forth to vote against whoever is in power. Instead of focusing on defeating or fleeing measures like this one, those holding power need to offer solutions big enough to match the moment.”

“They’ll get the signatures. And then there will be a deal. It will never see the ballot. Which is why it’s so annoying there’s such a media frenzy about it. But at least a few consultants are a few hundred thousand dollars richer each.”

“Doubtful it gets the full # of signatures it needs since it started so late. If it should make the ballot, it will lose since it doesn’t poll well now and when you start in the low 50s or under 50 – hard to see it going up. SEIU UHW is the only major funder and as with their other past initiatives, they claim to have enough money to qualify it but none to actually run a campaign. They never have run an initiative campaign. It’s just one big mess. But the ‘billionaires’ initiatives that are now clogging the streets aren’t the answer either.”

“Will it make the November 2026 ballot? Likely yes. That is a heavy lift for amateurs, but SEIU [UHW] is no amateur shop. They have money, field capacity, and a strong incentive to fund paid signature gathering. Will it pass? Most likely. Voters like the headline: “tax the billionaires once, fund healthcare.” But passage does not equal collection. The damage to the state, politically and financially, can be done even if the measure fails or the courts later narrow or block enforcement.”

“Common sense should prevail – on two fronts.

First, this ballot measure is weak. It polls great in the abstract – sure, people want billionaires to pay more – but it does poorly in the ballot question because it clearly says that it “exempts tax revenues from constitutional requirements for school funding.” That’s a big negative and weakness for the measure.

Secondly, and more importantly, this ballot measure could bring out hundreds of millions of dollars against it – and those dollars would be spent to turnout Republicans to vote “No.”  This could have catastrophic impacts on the key congressional districts SEIU [UHW] needs to flip or hold if Democrats are going to take back Congress. If Democrats lose the House by two seats and this ballot measure is seen as causing a couple of the new Prop. 50 house districts to be retained by Republicans, they will never live it down.

“Given the gaping hole in the budget and SEIU’s financial backing, the billionaire tax will likely make the November ballot. But it’s DOA as Newsom’s already voiced his opposition and will campaign against it as he tries to appeal to more moderate voters along the presidential campaign trail.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Gregg Fishman, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale. 

Editor’s note: an earlier version of this story referred to the billionaire tax proposal as being backed by SEIU. It is actually backed by SEIU-UHW. It has been corrected. We regret the error.