A special election to replace Kevin McCarthy could cost counties big bucks

California Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s stunning announcement that he will resign from Congress before his term ends has sent the state’s political class and those who cover it into an uproar. The possibilities of who might seek to replace the former House Speaker are numerous, and names of conceivable candidates began flying practically moments after his announcement became public.

But for now, McCarthy still holds the cards for how exactly that all goes down.

To date, McCarthy has not said exactly when he intends to step down, a critical piece of information for Gov. Gavin Newsom in determining his next move. According to the California Secretary of State’s office, should McCarthy officially resign prior to January 3^rd 2024, Newsom will have 14 days to call a special election. If he resigns after January 3^rd, the governor would have the option to call the special or to simply let the seat stay vacant until a new member takes office in January 2025.

The latter has been a source of confusion across multiple media reports, with most reporting that the deadline is Friday, December 8^th, the deadline for an incumbent to file for re-election. Others have specified Dec. 13^th as the date, which is the deadline for non-incumbents to file.

But according to the governor’s office, the discretionary option is available to Newsom only if a resignation comes in the final calendar year of the candidate’s term, which in this case begins on Jan. 3^rd 2024. Anything prior to that date and Newsom will be bound to call the special election.

Which is where it gets tricky for the four California counties – Kern, Fresno, Tulare and Kings – that make up McCarthy’s Congressional district.

But according to the governor’s office, the discretionary option is available to Newsom only if a resignation comes in the final calendar year of the candidate’s term, which in this case begins on Jan. 3^rd 2024.

One option is that Newsom could possibly consolidate the special election with the already-scheduled March 5^th presidential primary. That would definitely save the counties a lot of money.

“If the special primary election is separate from the presidential primary election, we estimate it will cost between $200,000 and $300,000 to conduct that election,” says Fresno County Clerk James Kus. “If we are able to consolidate with the March 5^th primary, there would likely be less than a $10,000 difference.”

Kus’s counterparts in the other three counties say the cost of a separate special primary election in their areas could run anywhere from $150,000 to $200,000.

That is not insignificant money for mostly rural counties like Tulare and Kings, especially given that the state does not reimburse them for their costs. Not that they don’t try to get some fiscal support from the state.

“The state of California does not support fiscally support counties when it comes down to elections for state or federal offices,” says Lupe Villa, Registrar of Voters for Kings County. “It is a topic of discussion that we face every single time we meet, and we ask for financial relief to assist local counties or local offices to be able to administer elections. And it’s very unfortunate that it falls on deaf ears.”

But cost is not the only challenge counties will face. Villa has doubts that his county could be prepared to consolidate a special primary election into the general primary.

“To consolidate for the March 5^th, I think the calendar is against that,” he says. “More likely it would be late March, early April, mid-April, somewhere around there.”

Kus is more confident in his county’s ability to handle a consolidation, though he notes there are significant pros and cons to either path.

“A consolidated election or a separate primary around the time of the presidential primary both provide unique challenges that I know that my department would be able to meet and overcome, but they would be challenges added to our processes,” he says.

“If the special primary election is separate from the presidential primary election, we estimate it will cost between $200,000 and $300,000 to conduct that election.”

For example, he says, the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) requires elections officials to send military and other U.S. citizens overseas an absentee ballot 45 days prior to an election.

“The candidate filing period for the special election can start no sooner than 73 days before the election and must end 53 days before,” he says. “Well, that changes our ballot preparation time from roughly 35 days or so because most of our candidates are done next Wednesday (Dec. 13^th). So our process time to develop ballots would potentially be significantly shorter if we were to include the special election contest on the primary ballot.”

Separating the elections would make it easier in some ways, but that comes with additional problems beyond the obvious increase in costs.

“Let’s say we have two elections that are held two weeks apart. While proofing and developing our ballots would be much easier because we can start right away and the special election ballots would be processed in their own time, there would be a period in time when we would have both elections kind of out in the wild,” Kus says. “A voter in the special election would potentially have both ballots in their hands and if they returned them in the wrong envelopes, they wouldn’t be counted. So there becomes a risk of voter confusion in both of those cases.”

There is also the outside chance that McCarthy waits until the 3^rd, potentially rendering the special election quandary moot. Newsom’s office has declined to say whether he would allow the seat to stay vacant in that case, but given that he has spent most of the last year sparring with Republicans across the country over any number of issues, it is hard to imagine he would do something to help the House GOP if he does not have to. For those who know him, it is equally hard to imagine McCarthy would give Newsom such a gift.

“I’d be surprised if Kevin allows that to happen,” says longtime GOP political consultant Rob Stutzman.* “But at some level, he’ll also be mindful of what all this means to the counties. He’s been close to them for a long time.”

There is also some concern that McCarthy’s departure without a replacement would shortsheet the residents of CD-20, who would effectively be left without a voice in the House. But Matt Rexroad, another longtime Republican consultant with long ties to McCarthy, says that is not as big a problem as it might sound.

“I think there are a lot of people in Congress and here in California who are going to think back and say, ‘I really wish we had Kevin McCarthy here now.’”

“I’m not someone who believes this would make a huge difference for the district,” he says. “Just like the in the Legislature, the district’s office will stay open and operational to assist constituents with issues. His constituents are going to be served.”

McCarthy was equally vague about his future after he eventually leaves office, though most of those who know him expect him to transition smoothly to the private sector, where a former House Speaker can reasonably expect to make a healthy living in the corporate world. Or he could use his significant campaign war chest and legendary fundraising skills to become something of a political kingmaker. Or maybe he just makes a fabulous living on the speaking circuit.

But Rexroad says whatever he decides to do, McCarthy will be missed in California’s GOP circles.

“I think there are a lot of people in Congress and here in California who are going to think back and say, ‘I really wish we had Kevin McCarthy here now.’”

*Rob Stutzman is a board member for Open California, the non-profit parent of Capitol Weekly