Experts Expound

“Meg Whitman’s multimillion-dollar media barrage appears to have blown Poizner out of the water, and she is shifting her sights to Jerry Brown. Early polls show a Whitman-Brown showdown in November is a toss-up. Do the polls reflect reality?”

In reality, Meg Whitman is “America’s Next Top Model,” Jerry Brown is “Extreme Makeover: The Political Edition” and Steve Poizner is “The Biggest Loser.”

I’m the wrong person to ask.  I voted for Pat Brown over Ronald Reagan in 1966!

Yes. That’s what happens when the GOP candidate runs a full-bore, multimillion-dollar campaign, while the Democrat brags about how little money he’s spent and holds an occasional press conference. Running for governor of CA in 2010 is not an earned-media campaign.

Too early in the ballgame. California voters dig movie stars but rich folk with no political experience trying to buy electoral love, not so much. Paging Al Checkbook, Bill Simon and Mike Huffington: Please come to the white courtesy phone.

It is too early to put real stock in the polls. As Whitman does more interviews and debates they may shift. Remember Al Checchi.

The polls do not consider whatever Poizner has planned for the next 80 days, and what might be coming. Smart guys like Jim Brulte are backing Poizner and do we all really think they have no strategy except what we’ve seen? This primary will heat up.

Yes.  I’m just curious if Poizner wrote his own ads.

No but they do show momentum. Meg clearly controls the GOP primary and if Jerry does not do something, this momentum will carry forward to the general election.

The polls reflect only current political instability in this blue state, and the fact that Jerry Brown has not launched yet on Meg Whitman nor put his own message on the airwaves.

This poll reflects a one-sided reality, bent and shaped by Whitman’s money. But political reality is rarely a constant — atmospherics can and do alter it — and one suspects that Jerry Brown will add his own bending and shaping.

I think the opportunity really is there for Republicans, but they will almost certainly find the exact strategy that will remind people why they are the minority party in the first place.
Yes. Poizner is toast. Whitman is rolling.

Way too early to even guess. But she has surprised a lot of naysayers so far and may have a fighting (make that financial) chance against the cagey, but baggage-ladened antediluvian.

The public employee unions will do whatever it takes to defeat her, but yes, the polls currently reflect reality.

It may reflect the reality today but today is not election day.  This race is far from over in June or November.

There’s eight months until the election. Eight months ago, Barack Obama had an approval rating in the high 50’s. But the train may have left the station for the Poiz.

Brown has important advantages, especially name identification, union support, and the Democratic party registration edge,   Whitman is untested and could be vulnerable on her record as a corporate executive.  Still, she has great wealth and is running when the national political climate favors the GOP.  The poll probably does reflect the reality of a tight race.

Total ownership of the airwaves all these months and the best she can do is a tossup? Wait till the manure starts flying her way. Whitman’s numbers will plunge faster and deeper than the economy under George W. Bush.

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