Experts Expound: Kamala’s out -now what?

What does Kamala Harris officially opting out mean for the 2026 California gubernatorial race? 

“It means that it is wide open for the entire field and the Republicans will not have an obvious target.”

“It means Eleni Kounalakis will stay in the race for governor, and her filthy rich father will try to buy her the governorship, like he bought the lieutenant governor’s office for her in 2018. The ultimate political sugar daddy.”

“The race begins in earnest – and without a 10-ton elephant clogging up the airwaves and fund-raising funnel. The Democratic primary becomes even more significant because the winner will almost certainly be the next governor – unless voters go completely mad. That’s because the Dem primary is so crowded with credible wannabes that it’s almost guaranteed that the top-two formula will send a Reep to slaughter in the finals.”

“Better build a bigger debate stage…”

“Katie Porter has the right message to match the moment. Democrats need a refresh built around closing the economic opportunity gap.”

“It means that the Republicans can’t mobilize around Kamala Harris dislike to mobilize in key Congressional races, like the Adam Gray seat, the David Valadao seat, and George Whiteside and Derek Tran, too. Kevin Calvert and Young Kim were hoping for a Kamala entry, as well. A Dem is going to be elected. The question is who will the top two be???”

“Free for all in a basically evenly matched field.”

“Game on! Eleni can now come out of hiding and raise (and spend) the money she needs to win. Porter’s star will fade (her name ID post Senate race will undoubtably drop) and the others will try (but fail) to keep up with two prodigious fundraisers. “

“It means candidates will have to hit refresh on their announcement statements (or perhaps fine tune their messaging. It means donors have no further excuses not to pick a lane.  And it means everyone should stop looking at polling where every Dem besides Kamala has no sizeable polling advantage and think they are in any way predicative of the primary outcome (sorry Katie Porter but your own poll does not make you the “prohibitive front runner” except in your own mind.)  It also means that a few folks who have been thinking about entering the race may think harder, especially if they have the potential to self-fund or raise a ton of resources.  Finally, it means that the Reps need to find a better candidate then the ones they have so far if they think they have any chance.  It is way too early and Kamala has been out one day, so hard to say much else.

“Since I’m in Del Mar this week I bring you the latest analysis of the Governor’s Race as written by a turfwriter for the Daily Racing Form. =)

And they’re off in the 2026 California Governor’s Race! With Kamala Harris scratching from the race, the field has exploded wide open. Katie Porter surges ahead, boosted by national name recognition, while Xavier Becerra, Toni Atkins, and Eleni Kounalakis jostle for position with calculated moves and deep connections. Betty Yee and Antonio Villaraigosa trail close behind, eyeing an upset. Meanwhile, Republican contenders like Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton recalibrate their game plans now that their main rival has exited. Donors are changing silks, endorsements are in flux, and the June 2026 primary is shaping up to be a barnburner. With Harris out, it’s a wide-open sprint to Sacramento—and it’s anybody’s race now!”

“It just got worth watching. There is now a real competition to find out what California is looking for in the next Governor.  And that is a heck of a lot more interesting than a pre-determined outcome.”

“With VP Harris choosing not to run, Democrats will still need to coalesce around two Democrats for a well vetted primary, and pressure others to drop out sooner rather than later. Hilton benefits with Harris dropping out as the Democrats will split the primary votes, setting him up for a primary victory (the general election will be an entirely different story). Harris dropping out doesn’t change the likely outcome that the next governor of California will be a Democrat, but it may change who that Democrat will be. The Lt. Gov is well position to stay in the political center and attract Independents in the general election, but given that Porter is a darling of the progressives, and without Harris splitting that political demographic, Porter likely emerges in the primary among the top 2 with Hilton, with Porter winning the general. Harris should have decided to run, in partnership with either the Lt Governor or Katie Porter. Calif Democratic voters, in my opinion, would not have an issue for her running for president after being elected governor. While Hilton would hammer her relentlessly on pledging not to seek the presidency, a Democratic primary in California would have been good for her and set Harris up for 2028 run.”

Our panel of experts: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Micah Weinberg, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale