Could a Republican actually be the next California governor?

The 2023 Netflix documentary series “Arnold” was not surprisingly cast as a celebration of its titular subject, but it could just as easily serve as a time capsule for a bygone era of Sacramento politics.

The series’ third installment, which focused on Arnold Scwharzengger’s time as California governor, touches on once-common features of the Capitol that have disappeared in recent years: contentious budget battles, press conferences in Room 1190 and former Senate pro Tem John Burton swearing like a %#^ing sailor.

But perhaps the quaintest idea depicted was simply that of Republicans having a starring role – or really any role at all – in Sacramento.

The last time the GOP won anything statewide in California was all the way back in 2006, when Schwarzenegger was re-elected governor and Steve Poizner beat the deeply unpopular Cruz Bustamante for Insurance Commissioner.

Since then, Republicans have basically become irrelevant in California state politics as Democrats have achieved and held a supermajority in the legislature and the threshold for passing a budget has dropped to a simple majority, making Republican votes unnecessary for most bills.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom set to term out and another gubernational race looming in 2026, it seems a foregone conclusion that one of an incredibly crowded field of Democrats – including former Senate Pro Tem Toni Atkins, businessman Stephen Cloobeck, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former State Controller Betty Yee and former gubernatorial appointee Michael Younger as well as possibly former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Vice President Kamala Harris and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter – will run away with the office once again.

Unless Republicans can find a way to break through.

While that seems unlikely at the moment, it is probably not totally out the realm of possibility. President Donald Trump gained voter share in 50 of the 58 California counties and statewide in the two consecutive presidential elections following his unexpected win in 2016. Even in deep blue California, the popularity of the man the Democrats once called the biggest threat to democracy has grown (at the ballot box, at least) over the years.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom set to term out and another gubernational race looming in 2026, it seems a foregone conclusion that one of an incredibly crowded field of Democrats will run away with the office once again. Unless Republicans can find a way to break through.

Even so, to win the governor’s office in 2026 Republicans must find a candidate with serious crossover appeal (as registered Democrats outnumber the GOP in California nearly 2-to1). Does that candidate need to be a MAGA adherent? A household name, i.e. a celebrity? A billionaire with money to burn?

What will it take to make Republicans competitive again? It’s a complicated question as GOP candidates begin throwing their hats into the gubernatorial ring.

Los Angeles resident Richard Grenell, described by Politico as “a longtime Trump loyalist” serving as the president’s U.S. envoy to special missions, received some attention recently after saying he’d be interested in running for governor if Harris runs. Grenell looked as though he was going to run against Newsom in 2021 but bowed out on Fox News a day before the candidate filing deadline.

Grenell would certainly fit the bill for a MAGA adherent, as would Riverside County’s firebrand sheriff, Chad Bianco, who officially announced his candidacy for governor on February 17. While MAGA-flavor Republicans are having their moment now, is leaning into MAGA a winning strategy for California Republicans in the 2026 gubernatorial race?

“I would have said no six months ago,” says legendary Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman. “But to be honest, I don’t think you can say no yet.”

That’s because of Trump’s improved showing in California during the last election. Kaufman says those numbers suggest that a MAGA platform is not necessarily a death sentence, at least not yet.

“I can’t believe those words are coming out of my mouth,” she says.

Former Republican strategist Dan Schnur says the GOP has “just enough” registered voters in California to get a gubernatorial candidate to the general election in the state’s top two primary system. But to actually win the general, he says, Republicans are going to need a candidate who appeals to more than just the Republican base.

That could create a difficult road for a candidate who touts Trumpism, strategists who Capitol Weekly spoke with suggest, although policies supported by Trump, minus his personal style, could perhaps still fly in California.

Schnur says Republicans in other blue states have had success with candidates who pair fiscal conservativism and strong support for public safety with more “inclusive” views on social and cultural issues.

To actually win the general…Republicans are going to need a candidate who appeals to more than just the Republican base.

It’s a model, he says, that California Republicans once embraced with Pete Wilson and Schwarzenegger. But he says Republicans in the state lately seem to have settled for being relevant in only local elections and national ones, while ceding statewide races to the Democrats.

Looking at the growing field of Republican candidates for governor, Schnur says he believes they’re “all trying to compete for the party base” rather than aiming for the political center, where he believes the GOP has the best chance for success.

Winning in a blue state, Schnur says, “requires a different kind of Republican.”

California Republicans running for governor have frequently fallen into two general categories: businesspeople (Meg Whitman, Bill Simon) or celebrities (Schwarzenegger, Ronald Reagan).

Farmer Leo Zacky, whose family was behind the now-defunct poultry producer Zacky Farms, fits the bill for a stereotypical Republican businessman, and he’s already announced his gubernatorial candidacy. Real estate investor Grant Cardone, who is also considering a run, and business consultant Sharifah Hardie, who has already announced, would fall into that category too.

The celebrity angle would be covered again with transgender icon Caitlyn Jenner, who after a failed run for governor in the 2021 recall election has teased about possibly running once more in 2026.

Nevertheless, Republican strategist Rob Stutzman says he generally thinks a traditional-appearing Republican candidate could appeal to voters because they tend to be perceived as serious, unlike some of the more outrageous, bomb-throwing national Republicans who have come to the fore in Trump’s wake.

But Stutzman added that it’s vital for that sober, Republican persona to also be paired with thoughtfulness for crossover appeal. While Stutzman is pessimistic about Republicans’ chances in the governor’s race in 2026 because of the electoral map, he says he believes big, ambitious ideas could carry weight with voters, particularly if those ideas include better ways to govern than what Democrats are offering.

Stutzman says he was skeptical about Trumpism’s overall appeal in California but added that he thought the president’s inclination to gorge “the sacred ox of government” could prove attractive to Californians exhausted by the state’s notorious red tape.

Two potential Republican candidates who could perhaps fit what Stutzman is talking about are the British ex-pat and political commentator Steve Hilton and the Stanford political scientist Lanhee Chen.

Hilton, a former Fox News host, has received some buzz for his ideas for remaking California government if pursues a run for governor. Chen, meanwhile, lost his race 2022 race for Controller, but outperformed former state Sen. Brian Dahle of Lassen County, the Republican’s gubernatorial nominee that cycle, in both voter share in the general election and in fundraising. It’s thought Chen could be a candidate for governor in 2026.

Stutzman particularly emphasized the importance of a Republican candidate who could fundraise or self-fund a campaign, as he says Republican candidates for governor have lacked the resources they need to compete in a state has large as California.

“It needs to be someone who can inspire to raise some money,” he says.

Interestingly, one place California Republicans haven’t frequently looked for gubernatorial candidates is within the own ranks of their own elected officials, as Schnur pointed out. Not counting recall elections, California Republicans went more than two decades, from 1998 to 2022, without nominating a gubernatorial candidate with actual experience in elected office.

In 1998, the Republican nominee for governor was sitting Attorney General Dan Lungren, who lost to Gray Davis, who then beat Simon in 2002. Davis was recalled the following year and replaced with Schwarzenegger, who won re-election in 2006. Four years later, Jerry Brown beat Whitman, then beat businessman and former U.S. Treasury official Neel Kashkari in 2014. In 2018, Newsom beat businessman John Cox.

It wasn’t until 2022, when Dahle was the nominee, that California Republicans once again put their hopes in the hands of a previously elected politician. He lost of course, but Dahle, who is thought to be considering another run for governor, represents something of a different argument for Republicans, an argument founded in governance.

Lassen County, in Northern California, northwest of Reno, Nevada, has long been a Republican stronghold. Dahle served 16 years on the Board of Supervisors of Lassen County, from 1997 to 2012 establishing a record of governing, not something a lot of California Republicans have on their resume. Among the accomplishments Dahle has touted was helping to leave the county of roughly 33,000 residents debt free with its pensions fully funded.

But while Republican strategist Tim Rosales says that a candidate’s record matters, personality often outdoes record in the race for California governor. Rosales says that over the past 50 years or so, California voters have shown they want governors with big ideas and larger-than-life personalities.

“That’s the kind of leader Californians really want,” he says.

With the exceptions of perhaps Davis and George Deukmejian, Rosales says California governors have generally been a little Hollywood, a little quirky, and most of all, bold. Dahle, of course, doesn’t exactly give off that kind of vibe, although Rosales didn’t dismiss his political acumen, complimenting the former senator for doing “great with what he had” in his run for governor.

Over the past 50 years or so, California voters have shown they want governors with big ideas and larger-than-life personalities.

The only other Republican candidate for governor who could, potentially, run on an apparent record in public office is a former judge named Jimmy Parker. He reportedly has declared his candidacy, but little information about him seems to be available. Rosales, who has worked four governor’s races, told Capitol Weekly he has never heard of him.

Conventional wisdom says Democrats have locked up California and Republicans have no chance of taking back the governor’s office no matter what candidates they put forth, if for no other reason than the significant gap in voter registration numbers.

But Democratic consultant Bill Wong says Democrats should not get overconfident in this topsy turvy election climate where the old rules don’t apply and seemingly anything can happen.

Consider, Wong says, that in the same district where New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez easily won re-election Trump also dramatically improved his share of the vote in 2024. Or that a tough-on-crime measure like Proposition 36 coasted to victory. Or that Harris lost the election after raising more than a billion dollars.

In another era, Wong notes that conventional also presumed raising a billion dollars would guarantee you a victory. Not today.

Now, Wong says, elections essentially come down to which candidate can connect with voters better. Your party’s candidate doesn’t have to be perfect, or even particularly good. He or she just has to do a better job than the other party’s.

Furthermore, in a fragmented media environment where it’s unclear where people get their information – or if it’s even accurate – the chances for an upset could increase. Ditto when you consider California’s top two primary system and the already large number of primary candidates for the Democrats, whose presence on the ballot increases the mathematical possibility that two Republicans (and no Democrats) could move on to the general election.

The conditions are treacherous, Wong says, adding that you can’t underestimate Democrats’ propensity to “shoot themselves in the head.” Even though Republicans have lost a lot of statewide races in recent years, he says he believes they could win the governor’s office in 2026, if they pick the right candidate.

“Just because they lost,” Wong says, “isn’t because they couldn’t win.”