CA 120: Are Democrats sleeping on CA Congressional District 3?

When USC did polling on the competitive congressional districts, they included five seats that flipped Democratic in the blue wave of 2018.

All but one of these seats was won back by Republicans, starting with Mike Garcia in CA 27 in a special election after the resignation of Katie Hill, then the return of David Valadao in CA 22 and Michelle Steele in CA 45 in 2020, and finally new Republican congressman John Duarte was elected in CA 13 when post-redistricting Democrat Josh Harder shifted up to the Stockton-centered seat vacated by Democrat Jerry McNerney after portions of his district were split between the two, and Duarte took the vacant seat, winning the closest race in the nation.

Added to this list of competitive districts polled by USC was the 47^th district in Orange County that Katie Porter left to run for US Senate, leading to a matchup between Democratic State Senator Dave Min and Republican Former Assemblymember Scott Baugh, and the 41^st District in Riverside which is a rematch of the 2022 race between incumbent Republican Congressman Ken Calvert and Democrat Will Rollins. The following shows how each of these races shaped up in their poll – with Democrats mostly leading in these competitive districts, but all polls within the margin of error.

We will write more about these races, but most striking in this poll is the one competitive race that was not included on this list and has been ignored for much of this cycle by national media and donors: Congressional District 3 represented by Republican Kevin Kiley.

This district reaches from the Sacramento exurbs, out to Tahoe, and down Highway 395 to high desert communities as far away as Death Valley. The biggest city in the county, Roseville, has seen an influx from Bay Area post-COVID transplants, and has been becoming increasingly progressive – contrary to much of its historic politics. There are other progressive pockets in the district, such as Nevada City and Truckee, and even the City of Folsom, which had a Republican advantage in 2020 but now has more registered Democrats.

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On the Republican side, incumbent Kevin Kiley is in his first term, and as Eugene McCarthy once said, “the most endangered species on planet earth is a first term member of Congress.” If Democrats want to win this seat, this year could present the best opportunity.

In addition, Kiley seems to be taunting Democrats, having conservative Trump defenders Jim Jordan and Laura Loomer in the district, riling up the Republican base, without regard to the message that could send to independent voters. The extent to which Kiley has continued to speak MAGA is in direct contrast to how other Republicans in competitive districts have been messaging – with John Duarte in CA 13 clumsily saying he is pro-choice, David Valadao in CA 22 voting for impeachment, and Ken Calvert in CA 41 now supporting gay marriage, after being one of the lead proponents of Prop 8.

While the gameplan for other Republicans has been to tack to the middle in their races, Kiley seems to be thumbing his nose at more liberal voters with his ties to Moms for Liberty, anti-Trans local policies, and not backing away from Donald Trump, who’s endorsement in 2022 helped him win his primary against Sacramento Sheriff Scott Jones.

On the Democratic side, Jessica Morse is running again after coming close in 2018 when the contest was against Tom McClintock. Morse is the only woman running in any of the competitive congressional districts in a year that abortion is a leading issue for voters.  (Her abortion ad is one to watch.)  On top of the abortion issue, her ballot designation of Wildfire Prevention Official speaks to another key issue in the district, particularly now as we enter the final months of fire season.

The 3^rd Congressional isn’t a slam dunk for Democrats, but it’s also not a slam dunk for Republicans. Biden lost the seat by one-point to Trump in 2020. But, in Capitol Weekly polling Harris is currently leading Trump by a 47-46 margin in this seat, potentially showing reason to be more optimistic in this district where the Congressional candidates have traditionally overperformed the top of the ticket, be it the Governor’s race or Presidential contests.

Facts on the ground – like the lack of investment from national donors – has led the three major national prognosticators, The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections to deem this seat as leaning Republican. And this read is probably right given the lopsided financial investment in the seat. Kiley’s own consultant Dave Gilliard seemed to predict where we are headed in this race when he said that this race is competitive, but that Morse will probably run out of money before the end.

Have decisions made months ago contributed to this race being potentially out of reach for Democrats? If this seat had been taken more seriously from the beginning it is likely that it would be at least as competitive as the 41^st where donors are flooding Will Rollins with needed campaign cash, or the 47^th where Senator Dave Min appears to be having an uphill battle after a primary where left-leaning organizations beat and battered him, leaving him weakened for this coming general election.