Experts Expound: The impact of crime rates on future elections

From fentanyl to smash-and-grabs, crime has been a big issue around the California Capitol this year. But will rising crime – or even the perception of rising crime rates – cause Democrats political pain? We asked our experts to weigh in.

How much will concern over crime negatively impact Democrats in the next California General Election?

“You only need to look at New York to see what happened when Democrats took this issue for granted. Democrats lost several Congressional races, and the governor narrowly won. This, particularly combined with homelessness, is emerging as a major issue with swing voters. The good news is the super-majority is finally starting to get it. Take a look at the switcheroo on the Grove sex trafficking bill.”

“It is an issue in a few districts and may even be the best policy wedge issue, but in the big picture we are only measuring the size of the super majority.”

“Will not affect state super majority control, but could prevent Congressional Democrats from winning control of the House and may hurt the small number of Democrat legislators in competitive re-elect seats.”

“Little to none. Maybe a campaign issue for the general election where Dems are running against each other in a top-two competitive district — and seeking GOP crossover voters.”

“No matter what the issue — crime, homelessness, traffic, etc. — CA voters don’t see Republicans as a viable or effective alternative to Democratic rule. CA Republicans — what’s left of ‘em — are widely viewed as gooney-bird MAGA culture-warriors, more up in arms over trans kids than transportation. So it will have little discernible impact on the ‘24 election. In fact, expect Dems to flip two or three GOP-held congressional seats.”

“In California, little to no impact.”

“Democrats will decisively win statewide elections for the US Senate, and the Democratic Presidential Election in California. Even at the legislative/congressional level, the real issues will be national because of how a Presidential General Election transforms everything into a hyper-polarized Red/Blue divide, with a massive focus on Pro-Trump/Anti-Trump and there will barely be enough oxygen for national issues such as Abortion, Economy, and any other big national issues that may percolate, such as any re-emergence of Covid / Immigration / Social Security and those kinds of fights.”

“Crime could definitely have an impact at the local level.  But there you’re talking about non-partisan races, and in heavily Democratic cities you’re going to see different flavors of Democrats taking slightly varying positions on issues.  In more conservative cities the Republican candidates may win more, but, again, these are non-partisan races, and most of us won’t tick off the partisan construction of local election outcomes.  Few have even realized that in the last 10-years the local elected officials have swung massively younger, more minority and more Democratic because of the transition to district-based elections due to the California Voting Rights Act.”

So, the TLDR answer is no.  Trump will suck all the oxygen out of the room and there won’t be space for more detailed policy debates over things like crime.  Even if we don’t get the promised Trump/Biden showdown for some reason, the Presidential race… Whitmer v. Hayley or Newsom v. Ramaswamy or Harris v. Pence…. That will still suck out all the oxygen and crime won’t break through.”

“Not likely any impact where the Democrat is running against a Republican. Maybe the issue could be material in a left-leaning district with two Democrat candidates and one has egregious crime positions. But, more likely than not, the election will be nationalized by the Presidential election with much larger issues on the minds of voters.”

“I have talked to many about this. I think it will have some impact but not the presidential. Many leg races will not happen in the fall. I think if it is a choice between the Repubs who are attending events and Trump as a separatist the Dems will not suffer.”

“I predict a lot of dem on dem action as a result. This issue is so hot in voters’ minds. Once upon a time this would’ve been ripe pickings for Reps but now they’re too busy defending Trump. I also expect we’ll see citizen action to overturn Prop 94.”

“Not much. Their opponents are failing to offer any solutions beyond the failed over-spending of the past on mass incarceration and community suppression. LA mayoral candidate Rick Caruso leaned hard into his tough-on-crime message, advertising his endorsements from former police chiefs and the L.A. Police Protective League. But his promise to expand the police force to new levels weren’t enough to defeat established Democrat Karen Bass.”

“At the margins in competitive districts, so basically not much.”

“Progressives should be concerned. Voters are fed up with crime at their doorsteps.”

The people from whom we solicited opinions: Elizabeth Ashford, Hector Barajas, A.G. Block, Barry Brokaw, Samantha Corbin, Jon Costantino, Richard Costigan, Tim Foster, Rex Frazier, John Howard, Fiona Hutton, Gale Kaufman, Steven Maviglio, Mike MeCey, Paul Mitchell, Barbara O’Connor, Jack Ohman, Kassy Perry, Matt Rexroad, Garry South, Paula Treat, Bill Wong, Daniel Zingale