No matter who is in the White House, California will still dominate climate policy

OPINION – Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris sits in the Oval Office in 2025, one thing is certain: California’s influence on U.S. climate policy will continue. The state, long a trailblazer in environmental regulation, is setting a blueprint for national policy. As the federal government faces mounting pressure to tackle climate crises, it’s increasingly clear that no matter who holds executive power in Washington, California will still lead.

Climate-Driven Natural Disasters
Climate change is no longer a distant threat; it is a lived reality, as devastating wildfires, floods, and extreme weather events become more frequent. California has been hit hard, but the state has responded with innovative solutions. For example, the state is funding 15 key projects to make roadways more resilient to changing weather patterns caused by the warming planet. These projects aim to ensure infrastructure can withstand the increasingly erratic weather conditions, from torrential downpours to intense heat.

The federal government, too, will have to invest in climate-resilient infrastructure as these disasters spread to other states. As climate-fueled disasters grow in scale and frequency, voters in other parts of the country will demand similar protections. States may look to California as a model, pushing the federal government to prioritize these investments nationwide.

Heatwaves: An Unrelenting Threat
A 2022 report by California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office urged more investment in disaster planning, with a focus on green infrastructure and public education to reduce heat risks – something sure to be considered by lawmakers. In the meantime, Californians themselves have the opportunity to step up. A climate bond measure on the November ballot could address funding constraints, illustrating the state’s commitment to addressing the impacts of extreme heat.

As heatwaves become more common across the country, the federal government may need to step in with similar programs. Other states are already feeling the strain of increasing temperatures. California’s ongoing struggle and creative solutions could guide federal and state-level responses to heat-driven climate emergencies.

Rising Seas, Rising Stakes
California, with its vast coastline, is acutely aware of the dangers posed by rising sea levels. Cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles are implementing long-term plans to protect coastal infrastructure, recognizing that the cost of inaction far outweighs the price of preparation. To create a model for a comprehensive state-level approach, the state legislature passed two bills to coordinate state, regional, and local agencies – Senate Bill 1 (Atkins, 2022) and Senate Bill 272 (Laird, 2023).

As sea levels rise along the eastern seaboard and the Gulf Coast, the federal government will likely turn to California’s strategies. From building seawalls to restoring wetlands, California is demonstrating that local action can offer scalable solutions for the rest of the country.

Transforming Industry with Zero-Emission Vehicles
California has been a national leader in transitioning to zero-emission vehicles. Federal law allows California to adopt vehicle emissions standards that are stronger than federal standards, and allows other states to adopt California’s standards. The state’s aggressive push for cleaner air has resulted in regulations aimed at reducing vehicle emissions, including the recent Advanced Clean Cars II, Advanced Clean Trucks, and Advanced Clean Fleets regulations.

California’s influence on the automotive industry is undeniable. Automakers already shift production to align with California’s standards. Federal policy will almost certainly follow suit, as market forces push the entire country toward a cleaner transportation future. Whether the next president supports these initiatives or not, the federal government cannot ignore the reality that California’s leadership is transforming the automotive industry.

California: Guiding the Way
California’s climate leadership is not just shaping state policy; it is setting the stage for the nation’s future. With climate disasters becoming more frequent and new approaches emerging, California is showing that bold action can yield real results. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is in the White House, California will remain a dominant force, guiding the federal government and other states toward a sustainable future.

Patrick George and Olivia Wright work for legislative advocacy and public relations firm KP Public Affairs in Sacramento.