Photo courtesy Gage Skidmore, Flickr
www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/Career political data analyst Paul Mitchell joins Tim Foster and John Howard to weigh in on the state of the race, the implications of the Super Tuesday results, where Warren’s supporters go now that she’s out, and when we might have final tally from California’s primary.
A Sacramento political rally for presidential contender Pete Buttigieg, who has since dropped from the race. (Photo: Chris Allan, via Shutterstock)For the past year, we’ve been conducting tracking polling of the dozens of candidates for the Democratic nomination. A consistent thread in those surveys was change: The front runners shifted from former Vice President Joe Biden to Massachusetts Sen.Elizabeth Warren to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Yet, everything has changed in the last 36 hours, and we are now set for one of the most tumultuous California election nights in recent history.
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at a rally in Ventura County during his 2016 run for president. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock.The final Capitol Weekly tracking poll is out. And it is finishing off with a bang. Last month’s leader in California’s Democratic presidential primary, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, is extending his lead, now up to 29%. The surge is seemingly drawing straight out of Massachusetts Sen.Elizabeth Warren who drops to 16%, just above the all-important 15% threshold.
Illustration of a California voter casting a ballot by mail. (Image: Vepar 5, via Shutterstock)In the March 3 primary election, Super Tuesday, we are expecting to see an earlier vote than ever before. Over 15 million California ballots are being mailed, mostly today, and we are expecting to see a ton come back in the first week or 10 days. With three-quarters of the electorate being mailed ballots, we know records will be broken.
(Vintage engraving of a donkey, modified by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)As we barrel toward the March 3 primary election, most eyes are on national and statewide polls showing a tight contest between four top contenders, with the latest Capitol Weekly polling showing Senator Bernie Sanders with a slight lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Joe Biden, followed by Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of Southbend, Ind.
Elizabeth Warren addresses Democrats earlier this year at a state party convention in San Francisco. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)Our November tracking poll for California’s 2020 presidential primary election shows some significant changes in the field, with the national field gelling around four major candidates and the potential havoc of new candidates entering the race. The poll, in the field since April, has now surveyed over 7,500 likely voters, utilizing data supplied by Political Data Inc. It uses an online survey emailed directly to voters deemed likely to vote in the March Democratic primary.
A voter casts a ballot in the 2016 primary election in Ventura County. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)In 2016 California had a late primary, and it looked like the Golden State would deliver deciding votes in both the Republican and Democratic nominations. If it weren’t for Trump’s victory in Indiana just weeks before, California would have been the last stand for Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and others who were mounting a late push to block a Trump nomination.
The Republican national convention in Cleveland's Public Auditorium in 1924. This year's GOP convention is in Cleveland, too. (Photo: Everett Historical, via Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: The conventional wisdom says fuggedaboutit. Pundits, campaign managers, and the politicians themselves express doubt about the possibility. Not as much as previously, but still doubt. It might happen. And California could be in the middle of it all. We’re talking about a “brokered” convention.