Deeply divided California voters will go to the polls on Sept. 14 — earlier, if they vote by mail — to decide whether Gov. Gavin Newsom should be recalled and who should replace him. The polls are tight. A July 24-27 poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies has 47 percent of those most likely to vote wanting to boot Newsom out of office, while 50 percent want to retain him. So what helps Newsom and what doesn’t?