Posts Tagged: registration
Photo of a voter registration banner in California. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
For the first time, California’s voter registration figures show independent voters surpassing Republicans, the culmination of a trend that has been building for decades. Updated numbers from California’s 58 counties showed decline-to-state voters, those who don’t state a party preference, had reached 25.5% in the weeks before the June 5 election. Republican registration, meanwhile, was put at 25.1%.
The crowd at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
One of the ongoing themes in analyzing California’s 2018 elections is the impact of the reforms that were enacted in 2012 – the state’s open primary, the extension of term limits and the new district lines drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission. Beyond these three, we also saw the creation of statewide online voter registration and a ballot measure to allow passage of an on-time state budget by a simple majority vote. This wave of reforms has made it incredibly difficult to discern the impact of each.
Republican candidates for governor -- Doug Ose, left, John Cox, center, and Travis Allen. (Illustration: Tim Foster)
The Republican side of the governor’s race has become an interesting contest to watch because, if for no other reason, of the way these candidates are trying to differentiate themselves before the June primary election. A debate in San Francisco led moderator John Diaz from the Chronicle to exclaim “This is the first time in San Francisco I have heard an argument among people about who most supports Donald Trump!”
Attendees at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
The 2018 primary election is right around the corner. And with stories of higher turnout and a Democratic wave in states like Virginia and Alabama, many political consultants and observers are expecting to see some higher turnout in California this June, with a potentially strong Democratic and Latino surge.
Balancing the political power between L.A. and the San Francisco Bay Area. (Illustration: Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)
ANALYSIS: With five months to the 2018 gubernatorial primary election, there is a natural tendency to try and find the single major factor that will determine the outcome. Will it be Donald Trump, absentee voters, young people, the gas tax, racially polarized voting, the open primary, North versus South, the growing number of independent voters, the new registrants since President Trump was elected, or 25% of the electorate who registered to vote in 2016? The fact is, it will be all of these things.
Traffic on the 405 in Los Angeles, the nation's busiest freeway. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
California’s new gas tax hike to fund billions of dollars worth of overdue road repairs has only been in effect for a little over a month but Republicans are already trying to overturn it. On Nov. 1, Senate Bill 1, signed by Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown in the spring after a fierce political battle, increased the excise tax on gas by 12 cents a gallon and the excise tax on diesel fuel by 20 cents a gallon.
High school cheerleaders at a July 4th parade in Huntington Beach.
Orange County set a participation record in the last presidential election, with more than 80% of registered voters casting ballots, the highest percentage in 40 years. High schools in the OC, however, are not setting any records on a key test of engaging young adults in the political process.
Telephone poles with their land-line wires fade into the sunset of a California highway. (Photo: Ethan Daniels.)
For decades, polling relied on a strong pool of easily reached voters with a traditional land-line telephone. Before caller-ID became prevalent, nearly every call was answered as long as someone was home. But now more voters are untethered from traditional phones (I haven’t had a land line since 1998), and those who do still have them complain that most incoming calls are from telemarketers.
A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.
An illustration of California's flag. (Lukasz Stefanski, Shutterstock)
Immediately after the 2016 there were a number of people and organizations that made quick analyses of the electorate, and what happened. Here in California, we appeared to be bucking a national trend: While the Republican ticket over performed in key swing states on the East Coast and upper mid-west, California saw Democrats regain legislative super-majorities in both houses, hold swing congressional seats and make Republicans appear more vulnerable than they have in many years.