Posts Tagged: races
Analysis
ANALYSIS: For the past two years, redistricting experts and politicos, myself included, have been building toward the 2022 election cycle. A big part of this included building tools for analyzing potential new districts for their partisan breakdown and likely voting behavior. Getting these kinds of metrics was critical to the drawing of lines by legislatures that still have the control, and performing advocacy before commissions in states, like California, that have transitioned to a public and open redistricting process.
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Berkeley IGS Poll: The election will be decided not by the overall electorate, but by only those who choose to take part in the recall. And, when the voting preferences of those considered most likely to participate are examined, the outcome becomes much closer, with 47% favoring Newsom’s recall and 50% favoring his retention.
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On election night, California’s closely watched congressional races, viewed as crucial to Democrats’ attempts to capture the House, were largely irrelevant, after all. Democrats needed to pick up 23 seats nationally to reach a House majority and they got 26 before Golden State voters even weighed in — far short of the number predicted by numerous campaign strategists but still enough to give Democrats control.
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CA120: Will Orange County, along with neighboring San Diego and the Inland Empire, look a little bluer on Wednesday? If so, is it a harbinger of things to come? Or is it just the impact of the Democratic presidential primary still being contested while Donald Trump has the GOP nomination wrapped up?
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Twenty-five-year-old Erin Schrode, a Democrat, is running for the House in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes coastal counties north of the Golden Gate Bridge to the Oregon line. She is the youngest candidate in any of California’s 53 House races and may be the youngest in the nation. She actually turned 25 during the campaign – the minimum required age to serve in the House.
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FIELD POLL: The poll finds a statistical tie in the non-partisan contest for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Likely voters currently divide 31% in support of educator Marshall Tuck, 28% for incumbent State Schools Superintendent Tom Torlakson, and a huge 41% undecided.
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ELECTION 2014: The number of women in the California Legislature is on the decline, a trend that — for now — is hitting Democrats, the majority party, more than Republicans. Nine women legislators from both major parties will be leaving the Capitol after this year’s general election.
Image of the California state flag, showing the cracks and fissures representing political differences. (Illustration: helloRuby, via Shutterstock)
