Posts Tagged: Propositions
A voter drops off his ballot. (Image: vepar5, via Shutterstock)
Capitol Weekly’s tracking poll of by-mail voters has been running since Oct. 13 and reflects the ballooning numbers of early returns. This electorate, as reported in a prior CA120 article, overwhelmingly leans Democratic, with a significant number of likely Republican voters still expected to turn out on Election Day. As a result, the findings on ballot measures explored in this initial report skew to the left. For experienced poll watchers, this is the opposite of the early exit polling that often skews Republican.
Doug Applegate, left, and Darrell Issa. (Photo illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)
EXIT POLL: What a year it has been for polling-related news in California – please try to contain your excitement. The venerable Field Poll went online (shades of Dylan Goes Electric). Meanwhile, USC and the LA Times combined to produce the most, um, “noteworthy” poll of the cycle (shades of Dewey Defeats Truman), which polling Director Dan Schnur posted on twitter “is wrong, but still gives us important info…”
A California ballot box. (Photo illustration, Hafakot, via Shutterstock)
It’s like a poker game: If you want to play, you have to ante up. And this year, the ante for Nov. 8 was nearly $48 million. That’s how much the rival interests for an array of initiatives paid to get on the ballot. That’s not money spent on the merits of the initiatives. It’s the money spent simply to get the propositions before the public.
Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly
As Capitol Weekly reported today, the November ballot is growing with seven measures already qualified, and another 66 in the wings. Most won’t qualify, so there is little reason to fear a 48-measure ballot like California saw in 1914. But we could near or exceed the modern high water mark of 29 on the 1988 Primary Election Ballot, and we will definitely exceed the average of 8.5 measures per ballot since 2000.
Downtown Los Angeles, as traffic zips along. (Photo: Sean Pavone)
Six months after Gov. Jerry Brown called for a special session of the Legislature to fix the state’s crumbling roads, the potholes are just as deep, the motorists are just as irritated and the multibillion-dollar price tag is just as high. The goal is to offer a package to improve the worst of the state’s 50,000 miles of state-run roads and 13,000 bridges, and provide new capacity in freight-clogged zones and provide a regular source of funding over time.
Before the Nov. 4 general election, California’s political watchdog examined “every advertisement relating to state and local ballot measures” – a total of 172 state and local propositions – and ordered corrections in 19 of them, mostly for failing to make it clear who was financing the ads.
Voters may be apathetic on Election Day, but there are some people in California who are excited indeed about the ballot – those who have a big pocketbook interest in the outcome. Campaign spending on six ballot propositions has approached a quarter-billion dollars – a hefty price tag, even in California
In the face of $150 million in opposition spending, two ballot measures to regulate health insurance insurance rates, require drug testing for doctors and ease caps on medical malpractice awards have declined sharply in popular support, according to the final Field Poll of this year’s election.
Ventura County voters go to the polls in a California general election. (Photo: Spirit of America)
OPINION: I now believe the turnout this November will be closer to 45% than 50%. In the previous 8 governor primaries (1982-2010) the average turnout was 39.2% and in those eight General Elections the average turnout was 59.0%, thus, on average an increase of 19.8% from the Primary to the General.