Posts Tagged: primary
Political buttons emblazoned with a message for voters. (Photo illustration: Digital Storm, via Shutterstock)
Because it’s set an earlier date for primary election voting, California is now destined to play a more important role in 2020’s presidential campaigns. Candidates who ignore that new fact of political life will “get their asses kicked,” says one of the state’s top political consultants. “People in California are voting on the morning of the Iowa caucuses,” added campaign strategist Ace Smith.
Mindy Romero of the Califorrnia Civic Engagement Project. (Photo: Scott Duncan, Capitol Weekly)
Elections expert Mindy Romero of the California Civic Engagement Project joins Capitol Weekly’s John Howard and Tim Foster to chat about California’s primary election turnout and what we might expect to see in November.
Republican candidates for governor -- Doug Ose, left, John Cox, center, and Travis Allen. (Illustration: Tim Foster)
The Republican side of the governor’s race has become an interesting contest to watch because, if for no other reason, of the way these candidates are trying to differentiate themselves before the June primary election. A debate in San Francisco led moderator John Diaz from the Chronicle to exclaim “This is the first time in San Francisco I have heard an argument among people about who most supports Donald Trump!”
Attendees at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
The 2018 primary election is right around the corner. And with stories of higher turnout and a Democratic wave in states like Virginia and Alabama, many political consultants and observers are expecting to see some higher turnout in California this June, with a potentially strong Democratic and Latino surge.
Balancing the political power between L.A. and the San Francisco Bay Area. (Illustration: Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)
ANALYSIS: With five months to the 2018 gubernatorial primary election, there is a natural tendency to try and find the single major factor that will determine the outcome. Will it be Donald Trump, absentee voters, young people, the gas tax, racially polarized voting, the open primary, North versus South, the growing number of independent voters, the new registrants since President Trump was elected, or 25% of the electorate who registered to vote in 2016? The fact is, it will be all of these things.
Kevin de León at the Hollywood Walk of Fame earlier this year. (Photo: Featureflash Photography)
Our recent Sextant Strategies & Research/Capitol Weekly poll of 1,554 likely voters shows just how significant a challenge Kevin de León faces in 2018. Nearly half the electorate has never heard of him, and of those who have, his favorability-versus-unfavorability ratings are about even. A hypothetical, Feinstein-De León matchup for both the primary and general elections shows Feinstein with better than a 2-to-1 advantage.
Hillary Clinton at a January 2016 rally in San Gabriel. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
Throughout the 2016 election cycle, Capitol Weekly conducted several polls of California voters. Two surveys — one during the primary election and the other during the general — targeted voters immediately after they mailed in their ballots. More than 80,000 people responded to the surveys.
People at a 2016 political rally in Anaheim for Republican presidential contender Donald Trump. (Photo: mikeledray, via Shutterstock)
Throughout the 2016 election cycle, Capitol Weekly conducted several polls. Two of them, one during the primary and the other during the general, were targeted to voters right after they had mailed in their ballots. In total, more than 80,000 Californians participated in these surveys. Now, we’ve gone back asked these voters how they feel about the candidates they backed and about the issues, and we sought their perceptions about the political climate. We’ll start with the Trump voters.
Assemblyman Kevin Mullin, who along with Sen. Ricardo Lara authored the early primary legislation, addressing the Assembly in May. (Photo: AP/Rich Pedroncelli)
With just-passed legislation from Sen. Ricardo Lara sitting on Gov. Brown’s desk, the 2020 California Primary looks to be headed to the front of the line. Well, not the very front – the first four spots in the nominating calendar would be reserved for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.