Posts Tagged: Political Data
Heading into Election Day we have seen shifts nationally that appear to advantage Republicans, putting the GOP on track to regain control of Congress and pushing a number of competitive races in California into “toss-up” territory. But with Republicans knocking on the door of potential gains, even despite a redistricting that appeared to reinforce Democratic districts and weaken Republican-held seats, could their own messaging on vote by mail get in the way?
Gov. Gavin Newsom at an environmental cleanup even in Long Beach on Aug. 5.(Photo: Howard Freshman)
ANALYSIS: We’re headed for another recall election, the first in nearly 20 years. A lot of things have changed, including the number of voters who will be casting their ballots by mail. Looking back at 2003, there were only 3 million voters who received their ballots in the mail. This cycle, all 22 million voters are getting their ballots in the mail, and we’re likely to see the vast majority of those cast by mail prior to Election Day.
A portion of California and its key regions in the 2021 redistricting. (Photo: Victor Maschek)
The 2021 redistricting has begun in earnest with the seating of the first eight members of the California Citizens Commission, the so-called “Lucky Eight” because they were seated after a random draw of ping-pong balls. In the quarantine era, this drawing, carried live, likely qualified as riveting entertainment.
A Sacramento political rally for presidential contender Pete Buttigieg, who has since dropped from the race. (Photo: Chris Allan, via Shutterstock)
For the past year, we’ve been conducting tracking polling of the dozens of candidates for the Democratic nomination. A consistent thread in those surveys was change: The front runners shifted from former Vice President Joe Biden to Massachusetts Sen.Elizabeth Warren to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Yet, everything has changed in the last 36 hours, and we are now set for one of the most tumultuous California election nights in recent history.
Voters in their booths casting ballots in a Los Angeles election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
One constant in California elections is change. In the past 20 years, we’ve seen changes to when the primary is held, then changed back, then back again. We’ve seen an open primary, then another version of the open primary. We shook up the Legislature with term limits, then imposed different term limits. We have moved increasingly to vote by mail, shifting the timeline of our elections.
A sign designating a polling place during the 2016 election in Ventura County. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)
ANALYSIS: Last week the Sacramento Bee ran a story of voter registration and how the type of registration, and timing of it, can provide a hint as to whether a voter will participate in an upcoming election. And, if a voter does turn out, whether it will be a one-time exercise, or whether that voter will be a more permanent voter.
An image depicting the varied responses in political polling. (Illustration: Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly),
ANALYSIS: The public opinion polling industry in many ways is at a crossroads. For years public polls were run with live telephone interviews using a system of “random digit dialing” or RDD, which allowed a poll to be based on samples which would be naturally balanced since all potential voters had the same probability to be administered a phone survey.
An illustration of the electorate. (Image: M-SUR, via Shutterstock)
ANALYSIS: Pew Research recently released a report titled Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics, which initially looked like a really interesting piece for someone like me who works in voter files every day. But one paragraph in, I nearly laughed out of my chair. The reason? There is a big difference between voter files and panels.
Hillary Clinton at a January 2016 rally in San Gabriel. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
Throughout the 2016 election cycle, Capitol Weekly conducted several polls of California voters. Two surveys — one during the primary election and the other during the general — targeted voters immediately after they mailed in their ballots. More than 80,000 people responded to the surveys.