Illustration of a get-out-the-vote message with the American flag. (Photo: Felipe Sanchez, via Shutterstock)California voters — those who hadn’t already voted by mail, anyway — headed to the polls Tuesday on a rainy, blustery election day marked by close attention to key Congressional races and high-stakes ballot propositions, while California’s statewide contenders almost got lost in the shuffle.
An illustration of California's Sept. 14 recall election. (Felipe Sanchez, via Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: For weeks, liberals gnashed their teeth over poll results showing Republicans almost universally highly “motivated” to vote in the recall. But then the first reports of ballots showed Democrats outperforming their levels of voter registration – currently they are 55% of returned ballots while comprising 48% of registered voters
A man mails in his ballot in the era of the pandemic. (Photo: Wayne Via, Shutterstock)Over five million California voters – nearly a quarter of the state’s registered electorate — have returned ballots for the General Election, which is less than two weeks away. This milestone, hit yesterday at 13 days until the election, wasn’t achieved in 2016 until the day before the election and exceeds the entire early by-mail vote in 2018.
Illustration of a person suffering from mental illness. (Image: GrAl, via Shutterstock)The modern history of mental-health care in California begins more than half a century ago with passage of the landmark 1967 Lanterman-Petris-Short Act, an ambitious — but ultimately disastrous — overhaul of a draconian “system” of hoary old mental hospitals throughout California. Most of the hospitals were closed, but the “community care” that was to take their place never materialized.
An illustration suggesting the variations in the voting population. (Image: Julian Tromeur, via Shutterstock)There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
The state Capitol in Sacramento. (Photo: Rigucci, via Shutterstock)With the recently concluded 2017-18 legislative session, it is valuable to look at some of the key data, including bill introductions, the fate of those bills, the work of the committees, the lawmakers’ legislation and the actions of the governor. So let’s crunch some numbers: We’ll look at the Senate first.
(Photo illustration: RedDaxLuma, via Shutterstock)CA120: This month has seen the release of dozens of new public polls, ranging from the presidential contest to statewide and local races. We have seen many of these publicly available surveys, but the vast majority of polling is still private – done by candidates and political action committees. It is rarely shared with those outside a very small circle of candidates and consultants.
Donald Trump, left, stands with Hillary Clinton at the first presidential debate Monday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. (Photo: AP/Evan Vucci)Within the wide Clinton debate win numbers, we can see variations among key portions of the electorate. The most striking is the partisan breakdown. For Democrats, the Clinton performance was an affirming event – with 90% of registered Democrats saying that she won the debate. Among Republicans, this was flipped, with 57% saying that Trump won.
People at a May rally of Republicans in Anaheim. (Photo: Mike Ledray, Shutterstock)Prior to the June Primary, California experienced a massive surge in voter registration. More than 2.3 million voters registered, either for the first time, or as a re-registration. This was not only larger than any other primary election in the state’s history, it was larger than any general election. As measured by absolute growth of the voter file, the nearest comparison was the 1980 primary in which former California Governor Ronald Regan was running for the Republican Party nomination.
Capitol Weekly and the CA120 series have been exploring the use of original polling to review the presidential race and the U.S. Senate contest. We are providing data-driven stories on how California voters are engaging with the election.