Posts Tagged: March 3
A sign at a political rally urging Democrats to register to vote. (Photo: AlessandraRC, via Shutterstock)
Despite the several avenues for nonpartisans to obtain a presidential primary ballot, we now have the data from all 58 counties. Remarkably, only 9% of California’s growing independent and vote-by-mail population have successfully obtained a partisan presidential primary ballot. For 91% of nonpartisan voters, there is no presidential race on the ballot they received in the mail.
Voter registration forms at the Santa Cruz County registrar's office. (Photo: Political Data, Inc.)
About 4 million-plus independent voters who are eligible to vote in the Democratic Primary will see no presidential candidates at all on their ballots. What?? Yes. In March 2020, in one of the hottest primary elections in recent history, where California is set to play a more important role than usual as the largest state on Super Tuesday, there will be approximately 3.5 million voters receiving blank presidential ballots.
California's 25th Congressional District. (Map: Federal Elections Commission)
It’s been a wild year for politics in 2019, from the national to the state scene, and one of the wilder spots is California’s 25th Congressional District. The year started off with Democrats cheering as millennial Katie Hill took the seat, flipping it blue after a 25-year run in Republican hands.
Elizabeth Warren addresses Democrats earlier this year at a state party convention in San Francisco. (Photo: Gage Skidmore)
Our November tracking poll for California’s 2020 presidential primary election shows some significant changes in the field, with the national field gelling around four major candidates and the potential havoc of new candidates entering the race. The poll, in the field since April, has now surveyed over 7,500 likely voters, utilizing data supplied by Political Data Inc. It uses an online survey emailed directly to voters deemed likely to vote in the March Democratic primary.
A voter casts a ballot in the 2016 primary election in Ventura County. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
In 2016 California had a late primary, and it looked like the Golden State would deliver deciding votes in both the Republican and Democratic nominations. If it weren’t for Trump’s victory in Indiana just weeks before, California would have been the last stand for Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich and others who were mounting a late push to block a Trump nomination.
Political buttons emblazoned with a message for voters. (Photo illustration: Digital Storm, via Shutterstock)
Because it’s set an earlier date for primary election voting, California is now destined to play a more important role in 2020’s presidential campaigns. Candidates who ignore that new fact of political life will “get their asses kicked,” says one of the state’s top political consultants. “People in California are voting on the morning of the Iowa caucuses,” added campaign strategist Ace Smith.