Posts Tagged: independents
A street sign for voters. (Photo by Gustavo Frazao, via Shutterstock)
CA120: The 2016 General Absentee Vote Tracker is up, and over two million California voters have already returned their ballots. This year, a great deal of national attention is being paid to the rate of early voting, and politicos on both sides of the aisle are using this data to make predictions in the presidential, congressional and state contests.
GOP presidential contender Donald Trump at a rally in Boca Raton, Florida. ((Photo: Windover Way Photography)
We found that no matter what Trump has said – be it the sexually explicit and aggressive comments released before the second debate, or his statement in Wednesday’s third and final debate that he would not commit to accepting the result of the election – his support here in California has remained very consistent.
Donald Trump, left, stands with Hillary Clinton at the first presidential debate Monday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y. (Photo: AP/Evan Vucci)
Within the wide Clinton debate win numbers, we can see variations among key portions of the electorate. The most striking is the partisan breakdown. For Democrats, the Clinton performance was an affirming event – with 90% of registered Democrats saying that she won the debate. Among Republicans, this was flipped, with 57% saying that Trump won.
People at a May rally of Republicans in Anaheim. (Photo: Mike Ledray, Shutterstock)
Prior to the June Primary, California experienced a massive surge in voter registration. More than 2.3 million voters registered, either for the first time, or as a re-registration. This was not only larger than any other primary election in the state’s history, it was larger than any general election. As measured by absolute growth of the voter file, the nearest comparison was the 1980 primary in which former California Governor Ronald Regan was running for the Republican Party nomination.
California supporters of Bernie Sanders attend a rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)
CA120: Sanders has been stronger in states like California with “open” primaries — those that allow non-Democrats voters to cast a ballot. California Democrats allow voters not registered with any other political party to vote in their primary. But the question is this: In what numbers will these non-partisans vote? Can Sanders surf this wave of support to a victory in California? The answer, according to our data, is probably not.
The power plant in El Segundo, Calif. (Photo: Don Solomon, via Shutterstock)
In less than a decade, a bipartisan view in California about the dangers of global warming has largely evaporated, with Democrats overwhelmingly seeing it as a very serious problem, while Republicans — just as overwhelmingly — are unconvinced.
Jerry Brown holds a 21 point lead over Neel Kashkari among likely voters in the governor’s race, and there is majority support both for a state water bond.Likely voters are more divided on two other statewide ballot initiatives, one that would establish a budget stabilization account—or rainy day fund—and another that would give the state insurance commissioner authority over changes in health insurance rates.
The San Ardo oil field, Monterey. Photo: Loco Steve, Wikimedia
Most Californians support the state’s landmark law mandating the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, according to a statewide survey released today. More specifically, strong majorities support two aspects of the state’s efforts to address global warming: a requirement that oil companies produce cleaner transportation fuels and the goal that a third of California’s electricity come from renewable energy sources. But residents’ support declines significantly if these two efforts lead to higher gas prices or electricity bills.