Posts Tagged: incumbent
OPINION: Last week, I started as the vice president of Redistricting Partners, a Sacramento-based firm known for its advocacy before the California Redistricting Commission and work doing voting rights analysis and redistricting for local governments. As I take this leap, I am constantly thinking about one person, Congressman Darrel Issa, and the story that for me really crystalizes the importance of the redistricting process.
Encouraged by their Nov. 7 election victories in other states, Democrats now have even higher hopes of flipping the House in 2018, and a big factor governing whether they will succeed rests on outcomes in eight Republican-held California districts. The eight incumbent Republicans in Southern California and the Central Valley that Democrats hope to defeat a year from now make up one-third of the 24 seats needed to give Democrats control of the House.
This is Darrell Issa country: The 49th Congressional District runs along the coast from southern Orange County to northern San Diego County. Its proximity to military bases such as Camp Pendleton, a substantial retirement community and other demographic factors have made the district a longtime Republican stronghold. But the nature of the district is changing and he may face a significant reelection fight this year from Democrat Doug Applegate, a retired Marine Corps officer and a lawyer.
ANALYSIS: There are rumblings beneath the surface about the danger of a race-tinged political war breaking out within the California Democratic Party. Antonio Villaraigosa’s challenge is to rouse the big Latino population of Los Angeles and the rest of California on his behalf in a primary race against fellow Democrat Kamala Harris. He realizes more than anyone the huge, mostly untapped, potential of the Latino vote. Harris would have the Northern California Democratic establishment, and, presumably, the preponderance of African-American voters on her side.
Jerry Brown maintains his strong lead among likely voters in the governor’s race against Neel Kashkari. Among two statewide ballot measures that Brown is campaigning for, Proposition 1—the $7.5 billion water bond—continues to have majority support and Proposition 2—the “rainy day fund”—has gained ground since September, with about half of likely voters in favor today.
FIELD POLL: The poll finds a statistical tie in the non-partisan contest for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Likely voters currently divide 31% in support of educator Marshall Tuck, 28% for incumbent State Schools Superintendent Tom Torlakson, and a huge 41% undecided.
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