An illustration suggesting the variations in the voting population. (Image: Julian Tromeur, via Shutterstock)There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
Image: "I Voted in California" stickers, from instocklabels.comHere it is, Dec. 11, and the final count of ballots cast in California’s Nov. 6 general election was certified less than a week ago. And, as Jim Brulte and Kevin McCarthy have sadly noted, many GOP Election Night “wins” fell to Democrats as the final votes were tallied.
A view of the House of Representatives, with members and their visiting families. (Photo: Mark Reinstein)A number of California’s Republican-held House seats face fierce challenges from Democrats, and the tally of votes in these tight races may not be completed for days, even weeks, following the election. That’s the message in Capitol Weekly’s survey of more than 20,000 mail-in voters across California who cast their ballots prior to election day.
Voters at a political rally in Santa Monica during the 2016 election campaign. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)A Capitol Weekly survey of California’s early vote-by-mail balloting shows Democrats Gavin Newsom and Dianne Feinstein ahead by double-digit margins in their races for governor and U.S. Senate, respectively. Regarding three of California’s most controversial ballot propositions, the most closely divided was Proposition 6, which would repeal the state’s newly imposed fuel tax: 42 percent opposed the repeal, 38 percent favored it.
Casting a ballot in California. (Photo: Vepar5, via Shutterstock)Literally minutes after Donald Trump’s election in 2016, political pundits, consultants and prospective candidates started a march toward the mid-term elections. The expectations were set extremely high, with Democratic hopes of taking back the House of Representatives led, in part, by a huge gain in the limited number of remaining Republican-held congressional seats in California.
A political rally in southern California during the 2016 election cycle. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)With the close of the 2018 primary election cycle, we get another chance to see how campaigns have evolved under California’s top-two open primary system. The most noteworthy change appears to be the manner by which campaigns are extending their reach across the partisan aisle. But they are not doing it in the way that the authors of the Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act, which took effect in 2011, intended.
A robot typing on a keyboard, a photo illustration depicting automated content. (Image: Mopic, via Shutterstock) What’s in a name? When it comes to social media, maybe a lot more than you think. There is a move in the Capitol to force social media companies such as Twitter and Facebook to identify “bots,” those robot-like, automated accounts that move through the internet and interact with real people — and each other.
The crowd at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)One of the ongoing themes in analyzing California’s 2018 elections is the impact of the reforms that were enacted in 2012 – the state’s open primary, the extension of term limits and the new district lines drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission. Beyond these three, we also saw the creation of statewide online voter registration and a ballot measure to allow passage of an on-time state budget by a simple majority vote. This wave of reforms has made it incredibly difficult to discern the impact of each.
A portion of the hundreds of thousands of people who protested federal immigration policies in Los Angeles in 2006. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)California’s growing Latino population is numerically strong but traditionally under-performs at election time – and that may have as much to do with economics as with politics. “The bottom line: If you see a growing Latino middle class, you will see a growing Latino representation in government,” said Mike Madrid, a veteran political strategist and author of a study by the newly formed California Latino Economic Institute.
A Ventura County voter casts a ballot in the June 2016 primary. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.