A political rally in Santa Monica in 2016. (Photo: Joseph SohmThe latest monthly tracking poll for the March 2020 Democratic primary election in California shows Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren increasing her share of the vote, for the first time pushing former Vice President Joe Biden down to third place among likely voters.
Kickoff campaign rally for presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Oakland in January. (Photo: Sheila Fitzgerald, via Shutterstock)With the second release of the Capitol Weekly 2020 Tracking Poll we can dive into some details of the survey. Each month we will strive to find something in the data that speaks to a major topic targeted by policy wonks, pundits and political strategists, and we’ll look at the data from California respondents.
An illustration suggesting the variations in the voting population. (Image: Julian Tromeur, via Shutterstock)There are plenty of things to look at now that California counties have updated their voter files with the 2018 general election vote history. This is our first chance to see what really happened, as opposed to what people thought had happened based on the outcomes.
An attendee at a Democratic political demonstration in California prior to the 2018 mid-term elections. (Photo: Karl_Sonnenberg, via Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: The 2018 election should have been a breeze for California Republicans. But three simultaneous forces, all moving toward Democrats, blew those prospects away. While one might think things can only get better for the GOP, there are some serious short- and mid-term obstacles to their recovery.
A powerful wave on a storm-tossed ocean. (Image: Andrey Polivanov, via Shutterstock)California is at the epicenter of what could be a Democratic wave, and that’s amazing. In this election cycle, we are seeing something really astounding, yet many are treating it as if it was normal. Californians are poised to give Democrats anywhere from two to five — or even more — of the 24 Republican congressional seats across the country that Democrats need to win control of the House of Representatives.
Photo illustration of of highway alerting people tom coming elections. (Image: Jim Vallee, via Shutterstock) Earlier this year, the state established a new system that could fundamentally change the relationship between Californians and their voter registration. In a series of changes—most notably the way that voter sign-ups are done at the Department of Motor Vehicles—California has entered an era of nearly automatic voter registration.
The crowd at a 2016 political rally in Santa Monica. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)One of the ongoing themes in analyzing California’s 2018 elections is the impact of the reforms that were enacted in 2012 – the state’s open primary, the extension of term limits and the new district lines drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission. Beyond these three, we also saw the creation of statewide online voter registration and a ballot measure to allow passage of an on-time state budget by a simple majority vote. This wave of reforms has made it incredibly difficult to discern the impact of each.
Investigators probe the London premises of Cambridge Analytica last week, after a search warrant was issued by a High Court judge. (Photo: Yui Mok/Press Association, via AP)It hasn’t been long since we learned of a presidential campaign that used personal information gleaned from Facebook apps to enhance voter files, and target voters and their friends with political messaging. This campaign was so sophisticated that they could identify people who would be swayed by particular messages, were more persuaded by messages about immigration, education, or health care, were likely or unlikely to vote, or even were likely to volunteer or donate money.
An image depicting the varied responses in political polling. (Illustration: Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly),ANALYSIS: The public opinion polling industry in many ways is at a crossroads. For years public polls were run with live telephone interviews using a system of “random digit dialing” or RDD, which allowed a poll to be based on samples which would be naturally balanced since all potential voters had the same probability to be administered a phone survey.
An illustration of the electorate. (Image: M-SUR, via Shutterstock) ANALYSIS: Pew Research recently released a report titled Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics, which initially looked like a really interesting piece for someone like me who works in voter files every day. But one paragraph in, I nearly laughed out of my chair. The reason? There is a big difference between voter files and panels.