Image by Cagkan SayinThere’s only two weeks before the completion of the 2024 March Primary and early numbers are suggesting an historically low turnout. Will this have an impact on a big race like the US Senate contest? Maybe.
2210901167Heading into Election Day we have seen shifts nationally that appear to advantage Republicans, putting the GOP on track to regain control of Congress and pushing a number of competitive races in California into “toss-up” territory. But with Republicans knocking on the door of potential gains, even despite a redistricting that appeared to reinforce Democratic districts and weaken Republican-held seats, could their own messaging on vote by mail get in the way?
A voter casts his ballot in the vote center at the Pantages Theatre in Los Angeles. (Photo: Ringo Chiu, Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: Ballots have been mailed to all 22 million California voters and many have already been returned. As has been the pattern for the last several election cycles, this begins a month-long stretch where most voters will cast their ballots by mail or at in-person voting centers. Some will wait until Election Day and vote at the polls, but that is a declining portion of the electorate.
A man mails in his ballot in the era of the pandemic. (Photo: Wayne Via, Shutterstock)Over five million California voters – nearly a quarter of the state’s registered electorate — have returned ballots for the General Election, which is less than two weeks away. This milestone, hit yesterday at 13 days until the election, wasn’t achieved in 2016 until the day before the election and exceeds the entire early by-mail vote in 2018.
Dermonstrators in front of the U.S. Post Office in Torrance protesting federal funding cuts. (Photo: Vince360, via Shutterstock)Vote-by-mail ballots have been sent to all registered voters in Amador County, with Solano reporting they will be mailing ballots today, while Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego counties — and maybe others – will be mailing next week. These counties are getting ahead of the Oct. 5 deadline for California counties to mail ballots. In other states, meanwhile, voting has been taking place for weeks.
A California voter casts a ballot by mail. (Photo: vepar5, via Shutterstock)When Californians went to the polls in March, the big news was the consolidation of the Democratic primary contest. Few would have expected that we were also effectively seeing the end of the primary election season — with subsequent elections throughout the spring either cancelled or run under the cloud of a viral pandemic.
A sign at a political rally urging Democrats to register to vote. (Photo: AlessandraRC, via Shutterstock)Despite the several avenues for nonpartisans to obtain a presidential primary ballot, we now have the data from all 58 counties. Remarkably, only 9% of California’s growing independent and vote-by-mail population have successfully obtained a partisan presidential primary ballot. For 91% of nonpartisan voters, there is no presidential race on the ballot they received in the mail.
Presidential contender Elizabeth Warren at a 2019 rally in San Diego. (Photo: John Hancock, via Shutterstock) For the past year, Capitol Weekly has conducted over 10,000 surveys of likely Democratic primary election voters. These surveys have emailed Democratic and nonpartisan voters each month, asking them to complete a survey, and tracked their responses back to their voter registration to allow us to analyze candidate support by ethnicity, age, partisanship, and other factors.
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders walking in the Independence Day parade with supporters in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by Gage Skidmore, FlickrCalifornia’s likely voters increasingly support Sen. Bernie Sanders in the March 3 Democratic presidential primary, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden following closely, according to Capitol Weekly’s January tracking poll. Sanders, who is capturing strong support from Latinos, has taken the lead in our survey for the first time since we began polling the Democratic field in September.
A sign designating a polling place during the 2016 election in Ventura County. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)ANALYSIS: Last week the Sacramento Bee ran a story of voter registration and how the type of registration, and timing of it, can provide a hint as to whether a voter will participate in an upcoming election. And, if a voter does turn out, whether it will be a one-time exercise, or whether that voter will be a more permanent voter.