Posts Tagged: 2016
News
With the recent Democratic wins in traditional bellwether gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, a massive pickup-in the Virginia Legislature, wins in several mayoral races and other assorted gains, the pundits appear locked into the narrative that we are headed for a wave election. This would follow the pattern we have seen previously, in which the mid-term elections serve as rebalancing against the party in power. But what does all this mean for California?
Podcast
Political Data’s numbers cruncher Paul Mitchell and pollster Ruth Bernstein of EMC Research stopped by the Capitol Weekly office to chat about the results of a new EMC Research/Capitol Weekly poll of the new voters of 2016. Will those voters be back next year?
News
History tells us that presidential-year new voters are likely to skip mid-term elections. Will the new voters of 2016 be any different? The answer to that question could have a profound impact on the 2018 elections.
News
Any sound voter analysis tries to identify prior events that hopefully serve to predict future voter behavior. For this we examine several past elections, including the gubernatorial elections we mentioned in Part I, and other recent presidential primaries. But each appears somewhat flawed as a predictor of what the 2018 primary will look like.
Opinion
OPINION: Starting later this year, a new law will begin to automatically register to vote millions of people who are getting (or renewing) a driver’s license in California, unless they opt out. Over time, this law is expected to dramatically increase the number registered voters in California and many political experts believe it will have huge implications for future political campaigns.
Podcast
Capitol Weekly’s John Howard and Tim Foster take the Podcast over to their home away from home — Naked Coffee — for a chat with data whiz and CA120 columnist Paul Mitchell. Paul expands on the ideas in his latest column, breaks down California’s vote in 2016 (now that the final numbers are in) and offers his thoughts on what’s in store for 2018 and beyond.
News
It’s like a poker game: If you want to play, you have to ante up. And this year, the ante for Nov. 8 was nearly $48 million. That’s how much the rival interests for an array of initiatives paid to get on the ballot. That’s not money spent on the merits of the initiatives. It’s the money spent simply to get the propositions before the public.
News
Prior to the June Primary, California experienced a massive surge in voter registration. More than 2.3 million voters registered, either for the first time, or as a re-registration. This was not only larger than any other primary election in the state’s history, it was larger than any general election. As measured by absolute growth of the voter file, the nearest comparison was the 1980 primary in which former California Governor Ronald Regan was running for the Republican Party nomination.
Opinion
OPINION: The California Air Resources Board (CARB) recently released the latest quarterly allowance auction results for California’s cap-and-trade program. While demand rose compared to the previous auction in May, a majority of allowances still went unsold due to uncertainty over the program’s future past 2020 – suggesting policymakers should take action, not solace, from better August auction results.
Opinion
OPINION: What can you do for a kid who wants to play soccer but can’t, because air pollution and the child’s asthma don’t mix on bad air days? It’s the kind of question that comes up regularly for me, as a doctor specializing in asthma and allergies.
Former President Barack Obama, right, waves to the crowd along with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov., Ralph Northam, during an October rally in Richmond, Va. (Photo: Steve Helber/AP)
