News

Some numbers crunching for Capitol political junkies…

The latest Field Poll results offer ample opportunity to have some fun.

So we did.

According to Field: Turnout on Nov. 2 will be 43.7 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican and 21.3 percent Decline to State/Other.

Total registration in the state:

D – 7,531,986

R – 5,257,669

DTS/Other – 4,203,420

Total: 16,993,075

So, if we assume a 60 percent voter turnout, we get:

Democrat — 4,455,584

Republican — 3,568,547

DTS — 2,171,716

Total: 10,195,847

Now, according to current percentages, Jerry would get 4,220,774 votes.

69 percent of Democratic vote — 3,074353

9 percent of Republican vote — 321,169

38 percent of DTS vote — 825,252

Current total — 4,220,774

Currently, Meg Whitman has 4,170,000 votes.

15 percent of Democratic vote — 668,338

75 percent of Republican vote — 2,676,410

38 percent of DTS vote — 825,252

Current total: 4,170,000.

With those numbers, Brown has a 50,774 vote lead.

Here are the remaining Undecided Voters:

16 percent of Democratic vote — 712,983

16 percent of Republican vote — 570,968

24 percent of DTS vote — 521,212

Total Undecided — 1,805,163

If all the remaining Dems and and Reeps come back to their candidates, Brown’s lead is 192,789. Whitman would have to win 328,423 votes from the remaining DTS (63 percent).

If Brown only get 80 percent of the undecided Democratic vote (570,386 votes) and Whitman gets 100 percent of  the Republican vote (570,969) plus that remaining 20 percent of Democrats (142,597), Brown needs to win among remaining DTS voters and pick up about 70,000 votes from that 1,805,163.

That means Brown would need to win about 54 percent of the late-deciding DTS.


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