Experts Expound

Experts Expound

“Brown launches his first ad and stumps the state. Whitman has dominated the airwaves; now Brown is showing up. Rasmussen aside, what’s your sense of the horse race? Who’s up, who’s down – and why?”

I have seen the internal polls….it is tied up…. Brown is up because he isn’t down at this start of his campaign. Turnout will be the game.

My sense is the race is essentially within the margin of error, which, if accurate, cannot bode well for Whitman. She has carpet bombed Brown and still cannot pull away.  His first ad touched on a critical factor which is seldom discussed – in light of today’s problems and deep concerns, the ’70s are looked upon with nostalgia and of better times gone by.  That plays well for Brown.

It’s Whitman’s to lose. She has every resource at her disposal and Brown still has failed to make his case as the able manager who can move California forward. And I say that as a Democrat!

As the California Classic enters the home stretch, Whitman’s younger, hungrier horse is ahead by a neck and kicking dust in the eyes of Jerry’s experienced but rapidly tiring mount. He may not have enough left to finish ahead of Meg, who has plenty of kick left and nothing in front of her. But never count a Brown out of a big race until it’s over. Prediction: Whitman by a nose.

A hundred people show up to Jerry Brown’s Labor Day campaign kick-off in Sacramento? Meg Whitman has more people than that at her Latino rallies. JB’s in trouble…

Given that it’s even after Whitman’s record spending and Brown doing nothing, I really like Brown’s chances. But it’ll be all about turnout. The lower the turnout, the better for Whitman. Democrats everywhere need to be really concerned about getting people out.

Whitman is probably ahead by a few points.  If it is still close at the end, Brown will lose, because he has invested absolutely nothing in infrastructure, field ops or GOTV. He’s running a down-ballot campaign for governor, slapping some ads on the air and keeping his fingers crossed, hoping organized labor will do his dirty work and leg work for him.

Who knows what the dynamic of this campaign is? Whitman has the money, but Jerry has the timing. If he spends $30 million the right way in eight weeks, he wins. What more can Whitman say that she hasn’t already? Her ads are familiar, Brown will exploit the element of surprise.

We realize that no candidate is perfect and they are human with foibles. But in the Guber race this year, we must question if one of them is in touch with reality, and realize that this campaign is not a matter of putting the best light on things – or the worst when it comes to the other – but rather one of outright lying and deceit.  It does not matter who’s up or down – whichever one wins (and who cares) it is going to be a comedic tragedy.

And, finally, a poem (T.S. Elliot eat your heart out)
Mrs. Meg, Mr. Brown.
Brown’s campaign is upside down
Brown was up, Meg was down
Meg’s now up, Brown’s now down.
Where was Brown?  There is Brown.
Brown just started touring the town.
Brown hopes for a comeback.
Brown’s comeback falls on the union’s back.
Now I may be a political hack,
But Brown’s campaign can cause an anxiety attack.

Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, Morgan Crinklaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Jim Evans, Kathy Fairbanks, Jeff Fuller, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Bill Packer, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ralph Simoni, Sam Sorich, Ray Sotero, and Garry South.

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