Experts Expound

Experts Expound

Will Proposition 73, the abortion-consent and notification initiative, drive
voter turnout? Will pro-life voters flock to the polls to get it approved?
Will pro-choice voters flock to the polls to oppose it?

“Nope.”

“The answer is No. This issue is on the periphery of the abortion debate.
All it does is restore a California law of the 1980s that was never
enforced.”

“Proposition 73 will drive turnout in the GOP base, evangelicals and
socially conservative minorities. In addition, socially conservative union
members voting both for and against Proposition 75 will also be more likely
to support Prop. 73 as a parental rights issue. The pro-choice vote has
less motivation this time around to get out to the polls. The bottom line:
Out of all the issues on the ballot, 73 has the greatest chance of passing.”

“Prop. 73 could turn out to be the sleeping giant of this election. I think
pro-life and religious organizations will turn out and not only support 73,
but 74 through 77, as well. Prop. 73 may turn out to have been the
governor’s saving grace.”

“No. No. No. I don’t see either of these as a big turnout draw-meaning
that a bunch of non-voters are suddenly going to rush off the couch on
Election Day to head to the polls.”

“Even though it’s been overshadowed by the torrent of money flowing for and
against 74 through 79, this issue should help activate evangelical voters on
the “yes” side and non-Catholic, non-Latino women on the “no” side. One of
the interesting subplots of this election is watching how much this
pro-choice Governor relies on the anti-choice evangelical community for
success.”

“The “flocking” will be relative, and while the “No on 73” forces are likely
to draw more voters to the polls solely on that issue than the “yes” folks,
both will be dwarfed by people who are headed to the polls to support or
oppose Propositions 74-80.”

“In the event that it impacts turnout at all, Prop 73 drives it on the
right. Abortion foes tend to be much more focused and organized than
pro-choice forces, better networked and more successful at rallying the
troops to support events (like elections) that further the cause. Plus, this
is their initiative. Pro-lifers are fighting on the offense. Pro-choicers
are playing defense on this one–again, a tougher rallying point


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