Experts Expound

Experts Expound

Gov. Schwarzenegger intends to be the star attraction at a June 29
fund-raising event for the Log Cabin Republicans in Hollywood. It will mark
the first time that he has appeared before gay activists since the recall
election. Is this smart politics? Does it hurt him with his Republican base?

Yep, it’s smart politics, and yep, it will hurt him with his base, but he’s
after the independent and mod Dem voters anyway.

Nothing will hurt him with the Republican base because Phil Angelides scares
them to death. They will turn out and vote for Arnold regardless.

The governor is going to need every vote he can get in November–gay or
straight.

He already posed nude in a gay magazine, so talking to the Log Cabin
Republicans is no big deal.

The Republican base is much more upset about illegal immigration than gay
rights and Arnold’s position on gay rights is well known. But if Arnold
doesn’t stop going out of his way to spit in the face of the Republican
base, his re-election margin will be surprisingly close.

Arnold could give a rat’s ass about his Republican base because he knows
that they have nowhere else to go. It is just another photo-op event by a
politician who has no political soul.

The more fights (real or manufactured) he picks with the wing nuts, the more
his prospects for November brighten. This is more than a Sister Souljah
“moment.” This is permanent and calculated electoral strategy and, frankly,
it’s a winning one. This is a referendum on the incumbent and social
moderates, particularly those with short memories, and they’re running out
of reasons not to re-elect him.

California is a blue state. Arnold cannot win without the votes of moderates
and some Democrats. A substantial number of those, although admitting the
charm is back, still don’t trust him on the issues. It’s election season.
The governor has to change his colors once again.

Schwarzenegger is a pragmatist. It’s no secret he is conservative on fiscal
issues and moderate on social issues. I highly doubt this will hurt him with
the base.


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