How many statewide offices will the Republicans pick up this year–if any?
Just one: insurance commissioner. And, overnight, Steve Poizner becomes the
Republican Steve Westly. But Democrats pick up secretary of state.
Win, or pick up? Picking up means they add to their current cache of two. My
guess: They add one–insurance commissioner–to the two they already hold
(governor and secretary of state). Democrats win lieutenant governor,
treasurer, controller, attorney general and superintendent of public
instruction (already a done deal).
Everything but treasurer and superintendent.
None, just a swap. Cruz goes down big and Bowen bests McPherson in an upset.
Perhaps two. I think they have a shot at Bustamante and at Garamendi. Less
odds on John.
Schwarzenegger, McPherson and Poizner–I think Poizner’s a lock.
None. They are a bunch of zeros–opposed to common-sense gun control,
strongly anti-choice and anti-environment. Most of Arnold’s tickets even
oppose his infrastructure plan.
Arnold will probably cruise to a second term and McPherson may hang on.
Beyond that, I don’t see any of the other GOP candidates winning statewide.
Poizner could win, mainly because Cruz’s base has eroded, but it would be a
Four–governor, lieutenant governor, insurance commissioner and secretary of
state–is probably overly optimistic. One or two (governor and maybe
insurance commissioner) is probably more realistic.
The conventional wisdom that Republicans can’t win statewide office is
false. Three almost won in 2002–McClintock, Olberg and Mendoza–but business
community thought they couldn’t–they were outspent–and it became a
self-fulfilling prophecy. McClintock has name ID, McPherson has incumbency,
Poochigian has Jerry Brown and Poizner has money and Cruz. Any could win and
more than one will.
Two: lieutenant governor and insurance commissioner, while retaining
governor and secretary of state.
The people from whom we sought opinions: Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Roy
Behr, Don Wilcox, Jon Fleischman, Evan Goldberg, Deborah Gonzalez, Dan
Schnur, Jason Kinney, Karen Hanretty, Kevin Spillane, Michael Houston, Adam
Mendelsohn, Matt Ross, Sam Delson, Mike Madrid, Morgan Crinklaw, Richard
Zeiger, Mike Madrid, Margita Thompson, Ralph Simoni, Bob Hertzberg, Scott
Baugh, Steve Maviglio, Tony Quinn, Peter DeMarco, Adam Probolsky, Barbara
O’Connor, Jack Pitney.