Experts Expound

Yes. Join the marines. Go to Afghanistan. Come back and run for office. Then leave the party.

It may be that his action merely infused a struggling campaign with much-needed publicity, which translated into positive name ID in a non-partisan contest. If, on the other hand, his parting shot — that he left because legislative Republicans are in the grip of a near-hysterical, litmus-saturated, logic-free partisan war — played any role in his surge, then Reeps ought to pay very close attention.

The new poll is a robo-poll, which are not accurate.

If Nathan pulls this off it will change politics for both parties.  So much so that it may even eclipse the open primary and redistricting for political change in 2012.

We won’t really know the effect of the No Party Preference option until the congressional and legislative races with candidates who have chosen that course play out this year — e.g., Chad Condit, Linda Parks, Anthony Adams, et. al.  Mayor’s races have been technically non-partisan for 100 years, so the Fletcher phenomenon is a bird of a somewhat different feather. 

It is a good thing for a moderate Republican who wants to run for higher office in California. 

The message for California Republicans is strikingly similar to the message for Titanic passengers. 

Yes, the answer is pay no attention.  Fletcher was one of three Republicans in the race and saw a way to appeal to independents, who are more than  a quarter of San Diego voters.  He made his switch for that reason.  He has now jumped into second place in the poll, at the expense not of his fellow Republicans but of the one Democrat in the race.  No doubt his polling showed he could get Dem votes with the independent label. The silly nonsense from the liberal media that this is some horrid trend for Republicans us just that, silly nonsense.

It says more about San Diego, once the home of white-bread Republicans. If Fletcher jumped ship to woo independents, then he must have seen it was his only chance of winning. How many of those independent Democrats are unhappy enough to vote Republican?

Ask Arlen Specter about leaving the party to stay in a race. Fletcher got a news-cycle bump and some support from moderates in both parties, but that’s about it – so far.

A great majority of Californians view the Republican Party with the contempt it has earned. Bolt the party and your reputation instantly improves.

A great majority of Californians view the Republican Party with the contempt it has earned. Bolt the party and your reputation instantly improves.

When a Republican jumps ship in the middle of a campaign in the middle of Republican territory, it means something. When that Republican was a rising star in the party and was carrying the hopes of many who saw him as a statewide candidate some day, it means even more. Republicans can cut it any way they want, but his defection shows a party in big trouble.

People whose opinions we sought: Andrew Acosta, A.G. Block, Mark Bogetich, Barry Brokaw, J Dale Debber, Peter DeMarco, Mike Donovan, Kathy Fairbanks, Rex Frazier, Ken Gibson, Evan Goldberg, Sandy Harrison, Bob Hertzberg, Jason Kinney, Greg Lucas, Mike Madrid, Nicole Mahrt, Steve Maviglio,  Adam Mendelsohn, Barbara O’Connor, Kassy Perry, Jack Pitney, Adam Probolsky, Tony Quinn, Matt Rexroad, Matt Ross, Roger Salazar, Dan Schnur, Will Shuck, Ray Sotero, Garry South, Kevin Spillane,  Angie Wei.

Want to see more stories like this? Sign up for The Roundup, the free daily newsletter about California politics from the editors of Capitol Weekly. Stay up to date on the news you need to know.

Sign up below, then look for a confirmation email in your inbox.


Support for Capitol Weekly is Provided by: