News

Assembly race scorecard

Democrats are ebullient about their national prospects, hoping for a national tidal wave similar to what Republicans enjoyed back in 2004.

Here in California, people are actually talking about what had once seemed unthinkable – the prospect of Democrats taking a two-thirds majority in the state Assembly.

Sure, it’s a long shot, but in this election year, Democrats believe anything is possible. If Democrats are to get to that magic 54 number in the Assembly, they would have to sweep seven races which are now seen as competitive. Below is a scoresheet for those of you who want to follow along on Election Night in some races that are sure to provide some drama long after the presidential election is settled.

This year, much has been made of new voter registrations. Barack Obama’s campaign has been predicated on drawing new voters to the polls, and hoping to flip previously Republican states like Nevada and North Carolina with floods of new voters.

Democrats may reap some of those benefits as well. For each of the competitive races, we’ve compared the registration from October 2006 to the latest October 2008 numbers. (Registration numbers do not add up to 100 percent because of third-party registration and decline-to-state voters).

AD 10
Huber vs. Sieglock
October 2006 Registration:
Total registration– 238,003
Dem.  – 89,893 (37.8 percent)
Gop. – 100,130 (42.1 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total registration – 256,235
Dem – 100,390 (39.2 percent)
GOP – 101, 493 (39.6 percent)

Net Change :Dems +10,124 (3.9 percent)

AD 15
Buchanan vs. Wilson
October 2006 Registration:
Total registration 274,267
Dem. – 104,270 (38.0 percent)
GOP – 110,227 (40.2 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total Registration – 307,989
Dem. – 124,469 (40.4 percent)
GOP – 112,255 (36.5 percent)

Net Change: Dems +18,171 (Dems +5.9)

AD 26
Eisenhut vs. Berryhill
October 2006 Registration:
Total Registration – 193,036
Dem. – 78,995 (40.9 percent)
GOP – 81,466 (42.2 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total Registration 203,281
Dem. 85,176 (41.9 percent)
GOP 80,483 (39.6 percent)

Net Change: Dems +7,164 (3.5 percent)

AD 30
Florez vs. Gilmore

October 2006 Registration:
Total Registration 122,105
Dem. — 57,853 (47.4 percent)
GOP – 46,593 (38.2 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total Registration 131,798
Dem. – 61,620 (46.7 percent)
GOP – 48,333 (36.7 percent)

Net Change: Dems +2,027 (1.5 percent)

AD 37
Strickland vs. Masry

October 2006 Registration:
Total Registration 239,889
Dem. — 81,844 (34.1 percent)
GOP – 105,681 (44.1 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total Registration 259,044
Dem. – 92,626 (35.8 percent)
GOP – 108, 056 (41.7 percent)

Net Change: Dems +8,407 (3.2 percent)

AD 78
Block vs. McCann

October 2006 Registration:
Total Registration 212,687
Dem. – 86,973 (40.9 percent)
GOP – 73,912 (34.8 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total Registration 234,884
Dem. – 100,672 (42.9 percent)
GOP – 74,901 (31.9 percent)

Net Change: Dems +12,710 (5.4 percent)

AD 80
Perez vs. Jeandron

October 2006 Registration:
Total Registration – 174,407
Dem. – 79,513 (45.6 percent)
GOP – 65,176 (37.4 percent)

October 2008 Registration
Total Registration 191,953
Dem. – 86, 356 (44.9 percent)
GOP – 71,347 (37.2 percent)

Net Change: Dems +672 (0.3 percent)

 


Support for Capitol Weekly is Provided by: