Experts Expound

“Quite a mix: taxes, cuts and a special election. Can Jerry Brown pull this off?”

Hard to tell.  The real question is, is Brown the best chief salesman for an extension of the tax cuts?  Davis got his major education-reform package passed in 1999 when his approval rating was 58-12, and even a plurality of Republicans liked his performance.  Schwarzenegger got the deficit-reduction bond passed in 2004 when his approval rating was 2-to-1 positive.  Despite his 13-point victory, Brown ended the campaign with only a 47-47 approval rating in the last Field Poll, and he may never reach the Davis high of 62 percent or Schwarzenegger high of 65 percent in job approval.  He is doing the right thing – in fact, the only thing he can do – but it remains to be seen if he can convince voters to extend the same taxes they voted 2-to-1 not to extend in May of 2009.

He’s got the best shot of anyone.  It’s a relief to have more experience and less posturing coming from the executive.

Ripping off one of John Burton’s favorite lines, a cynic might say: “Slim to none – and Slim left town.” Brown’s fans would counter: If anyone can, he can.

Jerry + $20 million from CTA, SEIU, Chamber, etc. = maybe.

The plan is good. But legislative ineptitude makes it difficult.

Well, he has started things off right.  He was able to talk about the budget looking like he knew what was going on. Brown has reached out to local government types in a good way. He is playing his cards well.

The trick for the GOP will be to go with the special election, but to create as many props as possible to give the people the choice of what they want. And Brown, while taking positive steps, has failed to address the biggest issue: public employee pension reform and the hidden deficit it has created.

To convince the moderate voters that he is serious, he’s going to have to address public employee pensions. Otherwise, he won’t be able to make the sale.

No but he gets an A for effort. He should have checked how many legislators came from local government before he decided to mess with Redevelopment Agencies.

If the clarity of the budget docs is any indicator, yes he can.  Best budget discussion in 20 years.  Amazing how you can speak in plain English and be understood when you aren’t trying to hide something from the people.  People of California are reading and talking.  They are ready for this discussion.  Hopefully the Assembly will follow.

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