Experts Expound

“Is 2012 the year that Democrats win two-thirds majorities in the Assembly or Senate – or both?”

It all depends on two things: redistricting and the Top Two election format. If the Gaines race is any indication, all-cut budget types in the GOP will have a tough time selling their extremism, especially with Obama and Feinstein on the ticket.

No.  Too much angst over budget and spending.  Reps hold their own.

Not even. If the Democrats win a two-thirds majority in either house, then there will be rogue Democrats who will hold up the budget for district reasons. When this is all over, Correa or either Calderon probably will have more pork than Farmer John.

Depends on what the 14-member Redistricting Commission does.  That certainly would be a shock to the Republicans that supported Prop 11 and 20.

I hope they do win. We’d get to see the policies succeed or fail.

Republican incompetency could certainly pave the way for this result.  We should all be on the lookout for plagues, famine and earthquakes as signs preceding the coming of such a new age.

If Republicans continue to nominate birthers, shills for wealthy taxpayers, immigration bigots and all-around thought-free toadies for Grover Norquist, then the new primary system and new districts may give Democrats a good chance at two-thirds  – if not a shutout.

It depends on how the new top-two primary plays out. If the only Republicans on the November ballot are like all the crazy wingnuts they nominate now, then they are doomed. But if the new system allows B.T. Collins-like pragmatic Republicans to make it to November, with Democratic and Independent support, obviously, then Republicans still have a chance to be relevant.

There are not enough seats up for grabs or Democrat leadership to get there in the Senate.  However, it could happen in the Assembly between Perez’s fundraising and political acumen as exhibited by picking off Pugno as well as the perfect storm of GOP instability and infighting, redistricting, open primary and a presidential election year.
There’s a good chance. And it’s also possible that the folks elected on either side may be more moderate, which would make things easier. But either way, by the middle or late decade, the GOP will be in a long-term decline that we see them further and further from relevance in CA, barring some late-game hail mary that lets them appeal to Latinos somehow.

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