Experts Expound

Experts Expound

The new redistricting maps will be released Friday. Assuming – a big assumption – that more districts will be competitive, what does this mean for 2012? Will Democrats get a two-thirds control of the Legislature?

The maps do not guarantee the Dems two-thirds; they could get to two-thirds but they would have to do it the old-fashioned way, win elections. There are lots of competitive districts.

Based on the Senate maps that the commission was talking about yesterday Democrats will control the upper house by 2014.

Just given the changed demographics of the state, a fair drawing of the lines will disadvantage Republicans. Also, Democrats tend to put up better candidates who are a better match for the districts, and run better campaigns. It is not outside the realm of possibilities that Democrats pick up a two-thirds majority in one or both houses.

Like American Idol it is all going to come down to the teeny-bopper vote. Like American Idol I wonder how many times the unions will vote. That is the answer.

It means both parties will have to think carefully about their approach to this election because, coupled with the new top-two primary, individual candidates from both parties will be forced away from the extremes. Democrats won’t likely stitch together a two-thirds majority, but they also may have more moderate Republicans to play with.

I’m hoping it gets to where they need a single vote in one house. Then let’s see if the GOP sticks together, and what absurd goodies one guy will trade for. We could even raise revenue with a reality tv show.

They will be more competitive but it is too soon to assume two-thirds for dems. So much is dependent on the economy and anger about incumbents. I hope for more moderates. Top two will be a big variable here. Here’s hoping for more functionality.

My fondest hope is that the new districts and primary system will reduce this vile partisanship – especially on the Republican side – that stops any solutions from happening. A Democratic supermajority would be the next best thing, and may well result.

For the sake of California’s future, let’s hope more moderates are elected. Enough of ideological deadlock already!

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