Poll: Trump leads in GOP primary

Republican presidential candidates at a March 3 debate. (Photo: Associated Press/Paui Sancya)

CA120: Our online California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin. Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%. A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater.


CA120: The old switcheroo

The political switcheroo. (Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

One of the recent story lines in the presidential contest is the idea of voters casting their ballots strategically. This media narrative suggests that voters will cast a ballot for a candidate — not because they support that candidate, but because it is the best strategic option toward a desired outcome.


Capitol Weekly podcast

Paul Mitchell (Photo By Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

Political Data Inc’s Paul Mitchell joins John Howard and Tim Foster to chat about new numbers from the Secretary of State and the effects of purging the voter rolls. He also digs into a hot topic – how the party delegate system works, with a look at the historical evolution of the primary process. All that, AND more: his connection to the Zodiac Killer!


CA120: Say hello to the California Voter File

Voters and potential voters at a political rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)

The California Voter File is a massive and constantly changing dataset. At the end of the 2012 election cycle, it grew to over 18 million voters. But with recent purges from county election files, it has dropped down to its current 17 million. As we near a major statewide election, we expect to see an uptick in registration and growth of the overall voter file. The state’s registration is likely — again — to exceed 18 million, and potentially even reach 19 million by November.


How California Latinos stop Trump


California will award 172 delegates in the Republican presidential primary, a mother load of support that could guarantee a decisive national role for Golden State GOP voters on June 7. Unlike several other states in the election cycle where the winner takes all delegates, California Republicans designed special rules to empower grassroots activists a few years ago.


June primary: California buckles up

A presidential campaign event at the Oxnard train station during an earlier election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)

Brace yourselves, Californians. The violent, vicious and volatile Republican political campaigns that have destroyed civility across parts of the South and Midwest are increasingly likely to cross the Sierra and spread vitriol in the Golden State.


CA120: California, here you come

Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly.

Yes, this could be happening. California, despite holding its primary presidential election in June and being a (somewhat) proportional state, could matter in the Democratic nomination process. And it will almost certainly provide the final big set of Republican delegates that could give Donald Trump the 1,237 he needs for the nomination — or deny him and ensure a contested GOP convention.


CA120: Hey, why avoid the ballot photo op?

Former California Gov. Ronald Reagan and wife Nancy voting in the 1980 presidential general election. (Photo: Associated Press)

There are few more iconic images in American politics than the candidate and spouse exiting the polling booth on Election Day. The sun is shining, the vibrant political family is in full bloom and democracy is in the air. But, in modern elections, this is changing


Capitol Weekly podcast

Jim Heerwagen, left, and Shane McCloud, of Voters Right to Know. (Photo: Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

Voters Right to Know, a reform group seeking political transparency, has dropped a bid to qualify a constitutional amendment guaranteeing public access to campaign finance information. Instead, the group is backing a new bill, SB 1349 by Sen. Bob Hertzberg, D-Van Nuys, that would improve Californians’ access to campaign data. Jim Heerwagen, a leader of the group, and campaign manager Shane McLoud stopped by Capitol Weekly’s office to talk about the new strategy.


CA120: In political polling, art and science join hands

The attitudes of voters. Illustration by Niroworld, via Shutterstock.

Friday night, my wife Jodi got home after a long week. Trying to decide what we should do, she flipped through some channels, looking at the networks, a couple sports channels, a few news channels, HBO and Showtime, and then finally announced “I don’t think there’s anything good on TV, let’s go see a movie.”

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