Analysis

CA120: The Race for Second Place

U.S. Senate contenders: Democrat Loretta Sanchez and Republican Ron Unz. (Photo Illustration by Tim Foster/Capitol Weekly)

Our recent Republican and Democratic primary polls suggest that Democrat Loretta Sanchez and Republican Ron Unz are in a tight race to place a very distant second to Democratic Attorney General Kamala Harris in California’s U.S. Senate primary on June 7. It’s important: A second-place finish guarantees a spot on the November general election ballot.

Analysis

Poll: Bernie up with independents, but Hillary still holds sway

California supporters of Bernie Sanders attend a rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm)

CA120: Sanders has been stronger in states like California with “open” primaries — those that allow non-Democrats voters to cast a ballot. California Democrats allow voters not registered with any other political party to vote in their primary. But the question is this: In what numbers will these non-partisans vote? Can Sanders surf this wave of support to a victory in California? The answer, according to our data, is probably not.

Analysis

LAO in retrospect: A conversation with Elizabeth Hill

Former Legislative Analyst Elizabeth Hill at one of her last official budget briefings. (Photo: AP/Rich Pedroncelli)

Elizabeth Hill became the first woman to head the California Legislative Analyst’s Office in 1986 when she was eight months’ pregnant with her second child. For 22 years, she held one of the most important positions in state government — advising the 120-member Legislature during fractious times and sometimes clashing over policy recommendations in an increasingly partisan environment beset by the passage of term limits, deep budget cuts, and recession.

Analysis

Poll: Trump leads in GOP primary

Republican presidential candidates at a March 3 debate. (Photo: Associated Press/Paui Sancya)

CA120: Our online California poll of 1,165 high propensity Republican voters has Trump currently atop the leader board by a comfortable margin. Trump receives 41% of the vote, to Ted Cruz’s 23% and John Kasich’s 21%. A separate sample of 466 Republicans registered since the turn of the New Year has Trump ahead 53%-21%-15%, indicating that Trump’s overall lead among the expected turnout is a few points greater.

Analysis

CA120: The old switcheroo

The political switcheroo. (Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

One of the recent story lines in the presidential contest is the idea of voters casting their ballots strategically. This media narrative suggests that voters will cast a ballot for a candidate — not because they support that candidate, but because it is the best strategic option toward a desired outcome.

Analysis

Capitol Weekly podcast

Paul Mitchell (Photo By Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

Political Data Inc’s Paul Mitchell joins John Howard and Tim Foster to chat about new numbers from the Secretary of State and the effects of purging the voter rolls. He also digs into a hot topic – how the party delegate system works, with a look at the historical evolution of the primary process. All that, AND more: his connection to the Zodiac Killer!

Analysis

CA120: Say hello to the California Voter File

Voters and potential voters at a political rally. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)

The California Voter File is a massive and constantly changing dataset. At the end of the 2012 election cycle, it grew to over 18 million voters. But with recent purges from county election files, it has dropped down to its current 17 million. As we near a major statewide election, we expect to see an uptick in registration and growth of the overall voter file. The state’s registration is likely — again — to exceed 18 million, and potentially even reach 19 million by November.

Analysis

How California Latinos stop Trump

Photo: GrassrootsLab.com

California will award 172 delegates in the Republican presidential primary, a mother load of support that could guarantee a decisive national role for Golden State GOP voters on June 7. Unlike several other states in the election cycle where the winner takes all delegates, California Republicans designed special rules to empower grassroots activists a few years ago.

Analysis

June primary: California buckles up

A presidential campaign event at the Oxnard train station during an earlier election. (Photo: Joseph Sohm, via Shutterstock)

Brace yourselves, Californians. The violent, vicious and volatile Republican political campaigns that have destroyed civility across parts of the South and Midwest are increasingly likely to cross the Sierra and spread vitriol in the Golden State.

Analysis

CA120: California, here you come

Illustration by Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly.

Yes, this could be happening. California, despite holding its primary presidential election in June and being a (somewhat) proportional state, could matter in the Democratic nomination process. And it will almost certainly provide the final big set of Republican delegates that could give Donald Trump the 1,237 he needs for the nomination — or deny him and ensure a contested GOP convention.

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