Analysis

CA120: A close look at California’s early vote

Casting a ballot in California. (Photo: Vepar5, via Shutterstock)

Literally minutes after Donald Trump’s election in 2016, political pundits, consultants and prospective candidates started a march toward the mid-term elections. The expectations were set extremely high, with Democratic hopes of taking back the House of Representatives led, in part, by a huge gain in the limited number of remaining Republican-held congressional seats in California.

Analysis

Serious business: seducing the California voter

California voters on election day casting their ballots in Los Angeles. (Photo: Josephn Sohm, via Shutterstock)

ANALYSIS: This, too, shall pass: There will come a day in the not-too-distant future when we’ll be able to sit down in front of our television sets or computer screens without being subject to political campaign commercials. Hallelujah!

Analysis

CA120: An ‘OMG’ blue wave in California politics

A powerful wave on a storm-tossed ocean. (Image: Andrey Polivanov, via Shutterstock)

California is at the epicenter of what could be a Democratic wave, and that’s amazing. In this election cycle, we are seeing something really astounding, yet many are treating it as if it was normal. Californians are poised to give Democrats anywhere from two to five — or even more — of the 24 Republican congressional seats across the country that Democrats need to win control of the House of Representatives.

Analysis

Fight for the House: Democrats smell victory

The House membership in the 114th Congress. (Photo: Wikipedia)

Nine races in November could determine which party controls the House for the next decade—and the map looks good for Democrats. This fall, Democrats face a bad map in the Senate and are in a tough battle to take back the House. But the party is on offense in nine crucial contests around the country that could determine control of Congress for the next decade.

Analysis

Fire, water and Trump’s tweets

A firefighting helicopter takes water from a golf course pond in Stevenson Ranch near Santa Clarita. (Photo: Krista Kennell, 2007)

On Aug. 6, President Donald Trump made his first Twitter statement on California’s summer fire season, which started on June 1. Unlike his statement on last year’s Wine Country fires, when the president tweeted condolences to victims of the fires and support for the firefighters, Trump used these latest natural disasters to troll California with nonsense.

Analysis

Bail reform bill sent to governor

A jail inmate in handcuffs awaits word on his case. (Photo: sakhorn, via Shutterstock)

On any given day, thousands of jailed people are awaiting trial, sentencing or hearings in any of California’s 58 counties. Many are in custody because they cannot afford to post bail. Legislation to allow people to be free while their case is in the Legislature and its fate will be decided by midnight Aug. 31 when lawmakers adjourn.

Analysis

Patriotic California? Well, sort of

Flags flown at houses along a southern California street. (Photo: Bill Chizek, via Shutterstock)

A financial advisory firm called WalletHub recently issued a study listing the states according to how patriotic they are. Care to guess where California wound up? With July 4 loomimg, we thought we’d take a look. We’re 44th out of the 50 states.

Analysis

Exit polls on key statewide races

The sign outside a Sacramento voting center. (Photo: Tim Foster, Capitol Weekly)

Since 2015 Capitol Weekly has been conducting polling to inform readers about policy and politics in the Golden State.  This latest installment is an exit poll of voters done by Capitol Weekly using data and tools from Political Data, Inc. This polling focuses on early voters who cast ballots in the mail or at early voting centers. The full survey includes more than 11,000 respondents surveyed over a three-week period of ballot returns.

Analysis

CA120: What’s wrong with public polling?

Illustration by Tashatuvango, via Shutterstock.

Is something wrong with public polling in California? The 2018 election season has been raucous, even weeks before the first votes are cast.  And one of the contributing factors has been the seemingly erratic public polling, particularly in the top-of-the-ticket races. The veteran political observers at CalBuzz have called this year’s polling a “muddled mess.”

Analysis

CA120: Politics, data and Cambridge Analytica — a followup

An image of voters on a digital information background. (Illustration: Maksim Kabakou, via Shutterstock)

With all the headlines about Cambridge Analytica and the potential that millions of Facebook users had their data leaked to third parties, there is one obvious question on the minds of candidates and consultants: What will this mean for continued use of digital ads in my campaign? The answer: Probably nothing.

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